# Serie A - Which Clubs Get Relegated

> Cremonese leads at 59%, runner-up 38% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/serie-which-clubs-get-relegated
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.961Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-28

## Headline

- Leader: Cremonese at 59%
- Runner-up: Cagliari at 38%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $17

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cremonese | 59¢ | +4pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-which-clubs-get-relegated-cremonese-polymarket-0xa0224dd1786eab161adafee1168cb48cc9ecbf80e938b74d7ae2ab1d097485a7 |
| Cagliari | 38¢ | +10pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-which-clubs-get-relegated-cagliari-polymarket-0xe39845e9efee80761e2e9e89d579f8b943a29233153f3ed148f8d84637bea6b7 |
| Lecce | 38¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-which-clubs-get-relegated-lecce-polymarket-0x1f27bc2e8ba7d49c159a30d8b5acbf262e37b7bfce49faaa83d97e1230ff85b2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Cremonese | Cagliari | Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 28 | — |
| 2026-04-10 | — | 38 | — |
| 2026-04-21 | 55 | — | 41 |
| 2026-04-22 | 59 | — | 38 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that a specific set of clubs will be relegated from their respective European top divisions by season's end. At 59%, the leading outcome reflects market expectations about which teams face the highest combined relegation risk. The current level is driven by mid-table positioning and recent form among several clubs: West Ham (35¢), Tottenham (32¢), and Leeds (19¢) dominate EPL relegation pricing, while Sevilla (19¢) represents La Liga relegation risk. Factors pushing this probability up or down include upcoming fixture difficulty, injury status of key players, managerial changes, and point differentials between endangered clubs and safety. The primary resolution catalyst is the final day of domestic league play, typically occurring in late May, when final table positions determine which clubs drop to lower divisions.

### Key factors

- West Ham's 35¢ contract price reflects their precarious league position with multiple remaining fixtures that will determine safety versus relegation
- Tottenham's surprisingly high 32¢ price indicates market concern about potential late-season collapse despite traditional competitive status
- Leeds at 19¢ suggests lower but material relegation risk given their recent performance trajectory and remaining schedule difficulty
- Sevilla's inclusion signals La Liga relegation uncertainty extending beyond typical favorites, widening the pool of vulnerable clubs
- Volume concentration in EPL contracts ($1864-$1477 daily) versus La Liga ($1301) shows where market participants perceive greatest relegation uncertainty

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/serie-which-clubs-get-relegated
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=serie-which-clubs-get-relegated

## License

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