# Serie A

> Winner: Varese leads at 49%, runner-up 49% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/serie
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:38.715Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-20

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Varese at 49%
- Runner-up: Winner: Germani Brescia at 49%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Varese | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-winner-varese-polymarket-0x472ab2c6899ae3e48e18f3bf7671c8f591a1abd8f36fe82e191b0af430c4b293 |
| Winner: Germani Brescia | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-winner-germani-brescia-polymarket-0xac46d7613b1ebcf425830ee35477dad994f68113ab594719b65cbc0092436cb0 |
| Winner: Aquila Basket Trento | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-winner-aquila-basket-trento-polymarket-0x183248262047ad5da782d88d1c9eefcf6ba080f6f375b3ad3d057e2c6bce7b33 |
| Winner: Tortona | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-winner-tortona-polymarket-0x966d98bbd90b764870b5a302b77434539d055bd93b7ea3c48d9caf55006e4891 |
| Winner: Pallacanestro Trieste | 48¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-winner-pallacanestro-trieste-polymarket-0x8dadf30ca76d92b3f92a0f24f21ffc777aa6822cf6514cfeac358de410bb6c53 |
| Winner: Umana Reyer Venezia | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-winner-umana-reyer-venezia-polymarket-0xac783d87e65bdaa488812e758501eed32e7252f1f16baa3b4b6ebc1a30e7bd23 |
| Winner: Pallacanestro Reggiana | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-winner-pallacanestro-reggiana-polymarket-0xc6032a3957da000049d53559517f607fbd65b20b4b73deee3e06bed9ebb79619 |
| Winner: Olimpia Milano | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-winner-olimpia-milano-polymarket-0x1d98c02c55a2da32002cbaccfa3b06db2d3c89b06d2389bebac33211af49f568 |
| Winner: Virtus Bologna | 48¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-winner-virtus-bologna-polymarket-0x35dfd23d4af4a832be92796e57f8efc8ff1acb1338073fce0213a09b299bf641 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Varese | Winner: Germani Brescia | Winner: Aquila Basket Trento |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| 2026-05-02 | 49 | 49 | 48 |
| 2026-05-09 | 48 | 48 | 49 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 47% probability reflects market expectations about the 2026 NBA playoffs, with significant trading volume across first and second-round series matchups. The current level suggests roughly even odds for the outcomes being priced. Trading data shows sharp disagreement on specific series: Detroit is heavily favored over Orlando at 74¢ despite Orlando trading at 26¢ in the inverse, indicating active debate about first-round results. The probability will shift based on playoff performance, injuries to key players, and which teams advance through each round. The upcoming NBA Finals in June 2026 will ultimately resolve most of these contracts, though individual series outcomes determine them before then. Current volume concentrations suggest markets are still pricing in uncertainty about seeding and matchups that remain somewhat fluid.

### Key factors

- Detroit trades at 74¢ to beat Orlando while Orlando trades at 26¢ in the inverse contract, suggesting potential mispricing or different market participant expectations
- Los Angeles Lakers priced at only 8¢ to beat Oklahoma City in a second-round series, reflecting strong market confidence in Oklahoma City's advancement and performance
- Minnesota at 11¢ against San Antonio indicates asymmetric expectations about their respective paths through the bracket
- High trading volumes on first-round contracts ($1.3M+ in 24h) versus lower volumes on second-round matchups suggests less certainty about which teams will actually meet later
- Orlando and Toronto both trading around 26-27¢ in their respective first-round matchups creates the baseline uncertainty driving the aggregate 47% probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/serie
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=serie

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.