# Milan vs Juventus

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 19 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/seriea1h
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:38.599Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-25

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Half Winner?: Napoli | 41¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/napoli-vs-bologna-first-half-winner-napoli-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may11napbfc-nap |
| First Half Winner?: Bologna | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/napoli-vs-bologna-first-half-winner-bologna-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may11napbfc-bfc |
| First Half Winner?: Tie | 35¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/napoli-vs-bologna-first-half-winner-tie-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may11napbfc-tie |
| First Half Winner?: Milan | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/milan-vs-atalanta-first-half-winner-milan-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10acmata-acm |
| First Half Winner?: Atalanta | 21¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/milan-vs-atalanta-first-half-winner-atalanta-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10acmata-ata |
| First Half Winner?: Tie | 39¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/milan-vs-atalanta-first-half-winner-tie-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10acmata-tie |
| First Half Winner?: Parma Calcio | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/parma-calcio-vs-roma-first-half-winner-parma-calci-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10parrom-par |
| First Half Winner?: Roma | 43¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/parma-calcio-vs-roma-first-half-winner-roma-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10parrom-rom |
| First Half Winner?: Tie | 39¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/parma-calcio-vs-roma-first-half-winner-tie-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10parrom-tie |
| First Half Winner?: Fiorentina | 31¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/fiorentina-vs-genoa-first-half-winner-fiorentina-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10fiogen-fio |
| First Half Winner?: Genoa | 18¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/fiorentina-vs-genoa-first-half-winner-genoa-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10fiogen-gen |
| First Half Winner?: Tie | 43¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/fiorentina-vs-genoa-first-half-winner-tie-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10fiogen-tie |
| First Half Winner?: Cremonese | 39¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cremonese-vs-pisa-first-half-winner-cremonese-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10crepis-cre |
| First Half Winner?: Pisa | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cremonese-vs-pisa-first-half-winner-pisa-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10crepis-pis |
| First Half Winner?: Tie | 41¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cremonese-vs-pisa-first-half-winner-tie-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10crepis-tie |
| First Half Winner?: Hellas Verona | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/hellas-verona-vs-como-first-half-winner-hellas-ver-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10vercom-ver |
| First Half Winner?: Como | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/hellas-verona-vs-como-first-half-winner-como-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10vercom-com |
| First Half Winner?: Tie | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/hellas-verona-vs-como-first-half-winner-tie-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may10vercom-tie |
| First Half Winner?: Lecce | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/lecce-vs-juventus-first-half-winner-lecce-kalshi-kxseriea1h-26may09lecjuv-lec |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 7 |
| 2026-05-09 | 32 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · First Half Winner?: Como +25pp 22→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · First Half Winner?: Tie +22pp 19→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · First Half Winner?: Tie +20pp 17→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · First Half Winner?: Cremonese +18pp 18→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · First Half Winner?: Roma +16pp 22→38¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 31% probability represents the likelihood that Milan defeats Juventus in their upcoming match. The assessment reflects current form, head-to-head dynamics, and squad availability between two of Italy's top clubs. Milan's probability sits below even odds, suggesting market participants view Juventus as slightly favored or expect a competitive encounter with multiple possible outcomes. The probability could shift based on team news regarding injuries or tactical changes announced before kickoff, and would be definitively resolved once the match concludes. Recent Serie A performance, defensive strength, and offensive efficiency typically influence such matchups, with the final result depending on in-match execution rather than pre-game indicators alone.

### Key factors

- Milan's recent win-loss record and goal differential compared to Juventus in the current Serie A season
- Availability of key players for each team, particularly any injuries announced in the 48 hours before the match
- Historical head-to-head conversion rates when these teams meet, particularly Milan's success rate at home versus Juventus's defensive record away
- Current league position and momentum, measured by points earned in the last 5 matches for each side
- Tactical deployment patterns from recent matches, including each team's tendency toward attacking versus defensive setups

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=seriea1h

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