# Will Pisa be Relegated from Serie A in 2025-26 Season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 10 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/seriearelegation
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:38.411Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $33

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 4¢ | −4pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-lecce-be-relegated-from-serie-a-in-2025-26-se-kalshi-kxseriearelegation-26-lec |
| Napoli | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-napoli-be-relegated-from-serie-a-in-2025-26-s-kalshi-kxseriearelegation-26-nap |
| Pisa | 90¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pisa-be-relegated-from-serie-a-in-2025-26-sea-kalshi-kxseriearelegation-26-pis |
| Udinese | 69¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-udinese-be-relegated-from-serie-a-in-2025-26-kalshi-kxseriearelegation-26-udi |
| Torino | 80¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-torino-be-relegated-from-serie-a-in-2025-26-s-kalshi-kxseriearelegation-26-tor |
| Inter | 30¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inter-be-relegated-from-serie-a-in-2025-26-se-kalshi-kxseriearelegation-26-int |
| Sassuolo | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sassuolo-be-relegated-from-serie-a-in-2025-26-kalshi-kxseriearelegation-26-sas |
| Genoa | 9¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-genoa-be-relegated-from-serie-a-in-2025-26-se-kalshi-kxseriearelegation-26-gen |
| Hellas Verona | 90¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hellas-verona-be-relegated-from-serie-a-in-20-kalshi-kxseriearelegation-26-ver |
| Parma Calcio | 70¢ | −34pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-parma-calcio-be-relegated-from-serie-a-in-202-kalshi-kxseriearelegation-26-par |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 10 |
| 2026-04-25 | 44 |
| 2026-05-02 | 44 |
| 2026-05-09 | 3 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Lecce +6pp 1→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Lecce −4pp 7→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Pisa −4pp 73→69¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 44% probability reflects market expectations that Pisa will finish in the bottom three of Serie A and be relegated at season's end. This estimate reflects Pisa's performance trajectory, squad composition, and competitive standing within Italy's top division. The probability could shift based on managerial changes, transfer activity during windows, and cumulative points accumulated through the season. The clearest resolution point is the final day of the 2025-26 Serie A season, when final standings determine which teams drop to Serie B. Prior to that, momentum can be gauged through regular monthly standings and head-to-head records against other struggling teams.

### Key factors

- Pisa's historical performance data: whether the club has previously competed at Serie A level or shows patterns of mid-table vs. lower-table finishes
- Current squad quality metrics: comparative analysis of player experience, age profile, and market value relative to other Serie A teams
- Managerial tenure and track record: how long the current manager has been in place and their historical ability to keep teams competitive in top divisions
- Points gap to safety: the numerical distance between Pisa's current position and the 17th-place threshold (or equivalent relegation zone boundary)
- Fixture difficulty in remaining matches: strength of schedule against teams currently positioned above and below the relegation line

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/seriearelegation
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=seriearelegation

## License

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