# Juventus wins by over 1.5 goals

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 14 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/serieaspread
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.111Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-25

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $918

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter wins by over 1.5 goals | 28¢ | +6pp | $856 | kalshi | /markets/inter-wins-by-over-15-goals-inter-wins-by-over-15-kalshi-kxserieaspread-26may09lazint-int1 |
| Juventus wins by over 1.5 goals | 42¢ | +1pp | $39 | kalshi | /markets/juventus-wins-by-over-15-goals-juventus-wins-by-ov-kalshi-kxserieaspread-26may09lecjuv-juv1 |
| Inter wins by over 2.5 goals | 12¢ | −1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/inter-wins-by-over-25-goals-inter-wins-by-over-25-kalshi-kxserieaspread-26may09lazint-int2 |
| Roma wins by over 1.5 goals | 36¢ | ±0 | $8 | kalshi | /markets/roma-wins-by-over-15-goals-roma-wins-by-over-15-go-kalshi-kxserieaspread-26may10parrom-rom1 |
| Como wins by over 1.5 goals | 43¢ | +2pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/como-wins-by-over-15-goals-como-wins-by-over-15-go-kalshi-kxserieaspread-26may10vercom-com1 |
| Lazio wins by over 1.5 goals | 7¢ | +2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/lazio-wins-by-over-15-goals-lazio-wins-by-over-15-kalshi-kxserieaspread-26may09lazint-laz1 |
| Cremonese wins by over 1.5 goals | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cremonese-wins-by-over-15-goals-cremonese-wins-by-kalshi-kxserieaspread-26may10crepis-cre1 |
| Napoli wins by over 2.5 goals | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/napoli-wins-by-over-25-goals-napoli-wins-by-over-2-kalshi-kxserieaspread-26may11napbfc-nap2 |
| Napoli wins by over 1.5 goals | 36¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/napoli-wins-by-over-15-goals-napoli-wins-by-over-1-kalshi-kxserieaspread-26may11napbfc-nap1 |
| Milan wins by over 2.5 goals | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/milan-wins-by-over-25-goals-milan-wins-by-over-25-kalshi-kxserieaspread-26may10acmata-acm2 |
| Milan wins by over 1.5 goals | 23¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/milan-wins-by-over-15-goals-milan-wins-by-over-15-kalshi-kxserieaspread-26may10acmata-acm1 |
| Atalanta wins by over 1.5 goals | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/atalanta-wins-by-over-15-goals-atalanta-wins-by-ov-kalshi-kxserieaspread-26may10acmata-ata1 |
| Parma Calcio wins by over 1.5 goals | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/parma-calcio-wins-by-over-15-goals-parma-calcio-wi-kalshi-kxserieaspread-26may10parrom-par1 |
| Roma wins by over 2.5 goals | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/roma-wins-by-over-25-goals-roma-wins-by-over-25-go-kalshi-kxserieaspread-26may10parrom-rom2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 15 |
| 2026-05-03 | 12 |
| 2026-05-06 | 23 |
| 2026-05-07 | 19 |
| 2026-05-08 | 27 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Roma wins by over 1.5 goals +13pp 19→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Como wins by over 1.5 goals +12pp 29→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Inter wins by over 2.5 goals +11pp 2→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Juventus wins by over 1.5 goals +8pp 31→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Cremonese wins by over 1.5 goals +8pp 18→26¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/serieaspread
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=serieaspread

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.