# Atalanta at Cagliari

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 18 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/serieatotal
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.323Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-25

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $500

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 14¢ | +3pp | $346 | kalshi | /markets/juventus-at-lecce-totals-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may09lecjuv-4 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 52¢ | +3pp | $132 | kalshi | /markets/juventus-at-lecce-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may09lecjuv-2 |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 30¢ | +2pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/juventus-at-lecce-totals-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may09lecjuv-3 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 48¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/bologna-at-napoli-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may11napbfc-2 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 43¢ | −2pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/pisa-at-cremonese-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may10crepis-2 |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 24¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/roma-at-parma-calcio-totals-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may10parrom-3 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 73¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bologna-at-napoli-totals-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may11napbfc-1 |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bologna-at-napoli-totals-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may11napbfc-3 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 9¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bologna-at-napoli-totals-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may11napbfc-4 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 77¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/atalanta-at-milan-totals-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may10acmata-1 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/atalanta-at-milan-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may10acmata-2 |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 30¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/atalanta-at-milan-totals-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may10acmata-3 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/atalanta-at-milan-totals-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may10acmata-4 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 72¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/roma-at-parma-calcio-totals-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may10parrom-1 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 46¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/roma-at-parma-calcio-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may10parrom-2 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 10¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/roma-at-parma-calcio-totals-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may10parrom-4 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 71¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/genoa-at-fiorentina-totals-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may10fiogen-1 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 44¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/genoa-at-fiorentina-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxserieatotal-26may10fiogen-2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 18 |
| 2026-05-09 | 26 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored +20pp 33→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored +17pp 53→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored +16pp 53→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored +11pp 19→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored +9pp 3→12¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/serieatotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=serieatotal

## License

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