# Who will be People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026

> Bad Bunny leads at 27%, runner-up 22% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sexyman
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.097Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Bad Bunny at 27%
- Runner-up: Michael B. Jordan at 22%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $177

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Bunny | 27¢ | −3pp | $93 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-peoples-sexiest-man-alive-in-2026-bad-kalshi-kxsexyman-26-bad |
| Michael B. Jordan | 22¢ | +2pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-peoples-sexiest-man-alive-in-2026-mich-kalshi-kxsexyman-26-mic |
| Pedro Pascal | 12¢ | +1pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-peoples-sexiest-man-alive-in-2026-pedr-kalshi-kxsexyman-26-ppas |
| Ryan Gosling | 9¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-peoples-sexiest-man-alive-in-2026-ryan-kalshi-kxsexyman-26-rya |
| Chris Evans | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-peoples-sexiest-man-alive-in-2026-chri-kalshi-kxsexyman-26-chr |
| Jason Kelce | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-peoples-sexiest-man-alive-in-2026-jaso-kalshi-kxsexyman-26-jkel |
| Travis Kelce | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-peoples-sexiest-man-alive-in-2026-trav-kalshi-kxsexyman-26-tra |
| Josh Allen | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-peoples-sexiest-man-alive-in-2026-josh-kalshi-kxsexyman-26-jos |
| Timothée Chalamet | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-peoples-sexiest-man-alive-in-2026-timo-kalshi-kxsexyman-26-tim |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Bad Bunny | Michael B. Jordan | Pedro Pascal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 13 | 14 |
| 2026-04-10 | 25 | — | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 25 | 13 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 26 | 14 | 12 |
| 2026-04-30 | — | — | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 25 | 17 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 26 | 20 | 13 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Bad Bunny +5pp 24→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Bad Bunny −3pp 29→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the likelihood that Bad Bunny will be named People magazine's Sexiest Man Alive for 2026, based on aggregated predictions from nine separate contracts. At 25%, he leads a competitive field of candidates, suggesting meaningful but not dominant odds. The current probability reflects Bad Bunny's sustained cultural prominence, global recognition, and track record of magazine covers and celebrity endorsements—factors that typically influence People's selection criteria. However, he faces significant competition from actors like Michael B. Jordan (17%) and others, indicating uncertainty about which public figure will ultimately capture the title. The outcome depends partly on each candidate's visibility and cultural relevance through mid-2026, though People's editorial preferences and broader celebrity dynamics also play a role. The resolution will occur when People magazine announces its 2026 Sexiest Man Alive, typically released in late fall, which will determine whether these current probabilities accurately reflected the decision.

### Key factors

- Bad Bunny's cultural dominance and media visibility compared to rival candidates through 2026
- Whether Bad Bunny has received the title in recent years (typically awarded to different individuals annually)
- People magazine's historical selection patterns and known preferences for actors versus musicians
- Michael B. Jordan's competitive position at 17% and whether other candidates gain market share over time
- Major celebrity events or scandals that could shift public perception and alter candidates' relative appeal before the announcement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sexyman
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sexyman

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.