# Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 10% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026

> Above 8% leads at 94%, runner-up 86% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sg
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.479Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-05

## Headline

- Leader: Above 8% at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 10% at 86%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $15K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 8% | 94¢ | +6pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-8-restaurant-leve-kalshi-kxsg-26augmargin-8 |
| Above 10% | 86¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-10-restaurant-lev-kalshi-kxsg-26augmargin-10 |
| Above 12% | 79¢ | +15pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-12-restaurant-lev-kalshi-kxsg-26augmargin-12 |
| Above 14% | 69¢ | +8pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-14-restaurant-lev-kalshi-kxsg-26augmargin-14 |
| Above 16% | 27¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-16-restaurant-lev-kalshi-kxsg-26augmargin-16 |
| Above 18% | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-18-restaurant-lev-kalshi-kxsg-26augmargin-18 |
| Above 20% | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-20-restaurant-lev-kalshi-kxsg-26augmargin-20 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 8% | Above 10% | Above 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 75 | 57 | 38 |
| 2026-05-27 | 83 | 74 | 54 |
| 2026-05-28 | 89 | 77 | 69 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Above 14% +24pp 25→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Above 16% +17pp 14→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Above 10% +17pp 57→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Above 12% +16pp 38→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above 12% +15pp 54→69¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects the market's expectation that Sweetgreen will achieve above 8% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026, with declining probability as the margin threshold increases. The current 77% probability on the 8% threshold reflects recent operational improvements and cost management, though margins remain sensitive to labor costs, commodity inflation, and same-store sales growth. The resolution depends on Q2 2026 earnings, typically reported 4–6 weeks after quarter-end in early August 2026. The probability structure shows traders expect Sweetgreen more likely to clear 8–10% margins than higher thresholds, suggesting modest but fragile profitability. Actual margin performance will be determined by traffic trends, pricing power, and overhead absorption across its restaurant base.

### Key factors

- Same-store sales growth rate in Q2 2026 relative to prior year and guidance provided by management
- Labor cost trends, minimum wage changes in key markets, and staffing efficiency improvements or deterioration
- Commodity and supply chain costs, particularly for produce and proteins, in Q2 2026 versus Q1
- Restaurant-level operating expenses excluding food and labor as a percentage of sales, indicating overhead management
- Q2 2026 earnings release date and actual reported restaurant-level margin figures versus the 8%, 10%, 12%, 14%, and 16% thresholds

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sg
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sg

## License

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