# Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 11.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026

> Above 9% leads at 92%, runner-up 90% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sga
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.281Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-26

## Headline

- Leader: Above 9% at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 9.5% at 90%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 9% | 92¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-9-restaurant-leve-kalshi-kxsga-27febmargin-9 |
| Above 9.5% | 90¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-95-restaurant-lev-kalshi-kxsga-27febmargin-9.5 |
| Above 10% | 70¢ | −16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-10-restaurant-lev-kalshi-kxsga-27febmargin-10 |
| Above 10.5% | 51¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-105-restaurant-le-kalshi-kxsga-27febmargin-10.5 |
| Above 11% | 32¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-11-restaurant-lev-kalshi-kxsga-27febmargin-11 |
| Above 11.5% | 23¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-115-restaurant-le-kalshi-kxsga-27febmargin-11.5 |
| Above 12% | 14¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-12-restaurant-lev-kalshi-kxsga-27febmargin-12 |
| Above 13% | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-13-restaurant-lev-kalshi-kxsga-27febmargin-13 |
| Above 12.5% | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-125-restaurant-le-kalshi-kxsga-27febmargin-12.5 |
| Above 13.5% | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-135-restaurant-le-kalshi-kxsga-27febmargin-13.5 |
| Above 14% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-14-restaurant-lev-kalshi-kxsga-27febmargin-14 |
| Above 14.5% | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-145-restaurant-le-kalshi-kxsga-27febmargin-14.5 |
| Above 15% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweetgreen-inc-report-above-15-restaurant-lev-kalshi-kxsga-27febmargin-15 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 9% | Above 9.5% | Above 10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 58 | 61 | 61 |
| 2026-08-05 | — | 93 | 91 |
| 2026-08-06 | 97 | 96 | 85 |
| 2026-08-07 | 93 | 90 | 69 |
| 2026-08-10 | 90 | 88 | — |
| 2026-08-13 | — | 89 | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 89 | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | 90 | — | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-20 · Above 10.5% +7pp 40→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · Above 11.5% −5pp 25→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 10.5% +4pp 47→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Above 11% +4pp 27→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above 12% +4pp 15→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Prediction markets assess an 94% likelihood that Sweetgreen will achieve above 11.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026. This metric matters because it indicates operational efficiency and unit economics — critical for quick-service restaurant chains. The high probability reflects confidence in Sweetgreen's margin expansion, though markets show less certainty about reaching 12% (74¢) or higher thresholds. Resolution depends on Sweetgreen's fiscal 2026 earnings report, expected in early 2027, which will disclose audited restaurant-level margins. Key drivers include labor cost management amid ongoing wage pressures, menu pricing power relative to input costs, and whether company-wide initiatives to improve throughput and reduce waste materialize. Lower contract prices at 12.5% and 13% suggest marginal diminishing confidence; the 3¢ price on 15.5% indicates the market views sustained high-margin performance as unlikely.

### Key factors

- Sweetgreen's actual reported restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026 will be the sole determinant; outcomes are binary once audited results publish in early 2027
- Labor costs as a percentage of revenue will be pivotal, given ongoing minimum wage increases and competition for fast-casual restaurant staff
- Menu price increases relative to commodity and food costs will determine whether Sweetgreen maintains or expands margins versus fiscal 2025 baseline
- Company execution on operational efficiency improvements (throughput, labor scheduling, waste reduction) will affect whether margins reach 12%+ thresholds
- The 58% average price across Kalshi contracts reflects meaningful uncertainty despite the 94% headline probability for the 11.5% threshold

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sga
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sga

## License

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