# Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 113

> Above 103 leads at 95%, runner-up 91% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/shakft
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:48.902Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above 103 at 95%
- Runner-up: Above 104 at 91%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $259

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 103 | 95¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shake-shack-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2-kalshi-kxshakft-26sep07-t103 |
| Above 104 | 91¢ | ±0 | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-shake-shack-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2-kalshi-kxshakft-26sep07-t104 |
| Above 105 | 46¢ | −21pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-shake-shack-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2-kalshi-kxshakft-26sep07-t105 |
| Above 106 | 26¢ | −12pp | $205 | kalshi | /markets/will-shake-shack-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2-kalshi-kxshakft-26sep07-t106 |
| Above 107 | 16¢ | −12pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-shake-shack-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2-kalshi-kxshakft-26sep07-t107 |
| Above 109 | 11¢ | −6pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-shake-shack-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2-kalshi-kxshakft-26sep07-t109 |
| Above 108 | 11¢ | −13pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-shake-shack-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2-kalshi-kxshakft-26sep07-t108 |
| Above 110 | 10¢ | −5pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-shake-shack-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2-kalshi-kxshakft-26sep07-t110 |
| Above 111 | 8¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shake-shack-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2-kalshi-kxshakft-26sep07-t111 |
| Above 112 | 6¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-shake-shack-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2-kalshi-kxshakft-26sep07-t112 |
| Above 113 | 5¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-shake-shack-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2-kalshi-kxshakft-26sep07-t113 |
| Above 114 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shake-shack-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2-kalshi-kxshakft-26sep07-t114 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 103 | Above 104 | Above 105 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 62 | 67 | 65 |
| 2026-08-09 | 92 | 87 | 79 |
| 2026-08-17 | 90 | 87 | 77 |
| 2026-08-23 | 92 | 88 | 54 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-21 · Above 105 +54pp 22→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Above 106 +50pp 21→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Above 105 −48pp 77→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Above 106 −45pp 72→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Above 107 +42pp 19→61¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates whether Shake Shack's foot traffic for August 2026 will exceed 113 million visits. Currently priced at 51%, it suggests roughly even odds, with market participants closely bunched between 103-107 million visits across the contract ladder. The narrow spread between contracts indicates uncertainty about the baseline traffic level rather than high confidence in any direction. Key drivers include seasonal dining patterns—August typically shows summer dining strength—and Shake Shack's comparable store traffic trends. The contract clustering around 50 cents across multiple thresholds suggests the market views August 2026 traffic within a relatively tight band. Resolution depends on Shake Shack's actual reported foot traffic data for August 2026, which would typically be disclosed in their quarterly earnings or investor reports. The zero trading volume across all contracts indicates minimal recent market activity, so these prices reflect accumulated expectations rather than fresh information.

### Key factors

- Shake Shack's year-over-year foot traffic growth or decline through 2026
- Seasonal summer dining patterns and their impact on August traffic specifically
- Store count and comparable-store sales trends leading into August 2026
- Consumer spending and restaurant traffic broadly during summer 2026
- Timing and content of August 2026 foot traffic disclosure in earnings reports

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/shakft
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=shakft

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.