# Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC

> Shanghai Haigang FC leads at 62%, runner-up 21% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:31.723Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Shanghai Haigang FC at 62%
- Runner-up: Draw (Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC) at 21%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $27

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Haigang FC | 62¢ | +5pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-sh-polymarket-0xa0abb958d6d1ad8643e3975bffb67432928aab4d1c4cd9d6162708a6a31e77bd |
| Draw (Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC) | 21¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-dr-polymarket-0x774484a5523c6daa18660566db9b7f397aae877ed426140d624484440fd89dc5 |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC | 18¢ | −3pp | $23 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-sh-polymarket-0xc09bd520a896897f49bb5fa423f6883e4ccf9ab3ab7c40b9c303e1c378bd6667 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Shanghai Haigang FC | Draw (Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC) | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 55 | 33 | 30 |
| 2026-05-02 | 58 | 29 | 22 |
| 2026-05-03 | 63 | 21 | 19 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC −8pp 30→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC) −8pp 29→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Shanghai Haigang FC +5pp 58→63¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Draw (Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC) −4pp 33→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC −3pp 22→19¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 64% implied probability that Shanghai Haigang FC will defeat Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC in their upcoming match. The odds favor Shanghai, though the 20% probability assigned to Shenzhen suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome. Trading volume is modest across related contracts, with total 24-hour volume under $1,000, indicating relatively light liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. The probability could shift based on team news—injuries, roster changes, or tactical announcements—in the days before kickoff. Shenzhen's handicap market trading at 11 cents suggests bettors expect a close or one-sided contest depending on the spread context. Resolution will occur at match conclusion when the final score determines the winner.

### Key factors

- Shanghai Haigang is priced at 64% vs. Shenzhen at 20%, with 16% remaining for draw outcomes, indicating the market views Shanghai as the clear favorite but not overwhelming
- Low aggregate volume (~$900 across 24 hours) suggests limited price discovery and possible vulnerability to new team information or public betting shifts
- Shenzhen's handicap contract (-2.5) trading at 11 cents indicates bettors expect either Shanghai to win by at least 3 goals or a relatively decisive Shanghai victory on balance
- The runner-up probability of 20% for Shenzhen implies roughly a 3:1 odds ratio favoring Shanghai, consistent with typical home-field or quality advantage in Asian football
- Contract liquidity is concentrated in the outright winner market rather than spread or total-goals markets, suggesting most traders lack strong conviction on margin of victory

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc

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