# Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/shimizu-spulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:50:47.727Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 78%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 57%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 78¢ | +9pp | $53 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x699392956e8574b0068655f04c86340395da905db9a0a1c83691c96f140376a7 |
| Both Teams to Score | 57¢ | +3pp | $7 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-both-t-polymarket-0xfb2380378688704b47494565f0cefde372a42d15936b8d92a9350bfe9e8afa88 |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | −15pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0xd2a2424ae02003bbb337e656c3987b2b1d12ad9aad7fb9edb5868b6fa5a444ad |
| O/U 3.5 | 31¢ | −20pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x9ba5763b1bbf6ee6a9a955e7b7d579cb4ca2664bb4772744f035dd9fbea95369 |
| Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.5) | 18¢ | −27pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-shimiz-polymarket-0x58a32c1a02227c98b8f87cbe8d4ae68c2fd5c63177f81dbcd5d059cf06b77fa2 |
| Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5) | 15¢ | −17pp | $177 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-cerezo-polymarket-0x3391937d9b697a5bd01565766582c3bf31c8227da2901e673fdf86f17afc6144 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | −16pp | $45 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x8f53ed6beec70830c11ea974cb923f308725be3fe2e6fffb4ef8f2e2940e5fd7 |
| Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5) | 7¢ | −30pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-shimiz-polymarket-0xc33d1c5ce506ddb23d75e315a0dc7191503b35752a13331c1bb03b4e0f2e62ae |
| Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5) | 6¢ | −21pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-cerezo-polymarket-0xbf161f60415e3e1fcbafa287b25cd8af8d21cc294931ae609a766e80193eec44 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | — | 51 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 65 | 51 | 53 |
| 2026-05-06 | 74 | 54 | 38 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5) −30pp 34→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.5) −27pp 39→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5) −21pp 31→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 3.5 −20pp 39→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5) −17pp 36→19¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 50% probability indicates that traders currently assess Shimizu S-Pulse and Cerezo Ōsaka as nearly evenly matched in an upcoming match, with Cerezo favored slightly in some derivative markets at 33 cents for a -1.5 spread. The mid-50% pricing reflects thin liquidity across the contract set ($0 in 24-hour volume) and limited consensus; Polymarket's other S-Pulse contract shows 44 cents, suggesting some traders expect Shimizu to perform better than the leader's current pricing implies. The probability would shift upward if recent form data favors Shimizu, downward if Cerezo's recent wins or head-to-head record dominates trader calculations. Resolution depends on the scheduled match outcome, which will definitively settle the contract and reveal which team performs better on the day.

### Key factors

- Recent form and goals-for/against records for both clubs in their latest five matches
- Head-to-head historical performance between Shimizu S-Pulse and Cerezo Ōsaka
- Injury or suspension status of key players for either squad ahead of the fixture
- Home/away advantage and venue conditions for the scheduled match
- Market depth and liquidity: the $0 daily volume suggests minimal price discovery, making current probabilities vulnerable to early information or larger trades

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=shimizu-spulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets

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