# Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka

> Shimizu S-Pulse leads at 38%, runner-up 35% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/shimizu-spulse-vs-cerezo-saka
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:35:54.095Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Shimizu S-Pulse at 38%
- Runner-up: Cerezo Ōsaka at 35%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 38¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-shimizu-s-pulse-polymarket-0x434537039ebd1deb897d55cff5634d5625c6c29f7faef1a90cd41f64b602a9ae |
| Cerezo Ōsaka | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-cerezo-saka-polymarket-0x87c3405568fdeaf6f7e7e6b396212b4ce8637e3e57f51308effe50224a1b889a |
| Draw (Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka) | 27¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-draw-shimizu-s-puls-polymarket-0xbd1972d70c4630591115085060040b342649031614502b0b4b4b219d13ddc96f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Shimizu S-Pulse | Cerezo Ōsaka | Draw (Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 42 | 35 | 32 |
| 2026-05-02 | 44 | 34 | 32 |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 | 34 | 32 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the implied probability that Shimizu S-Pulse will defeat Cerezo Ōsaka in an upcoming J-League match, based on aggregated betting contracts. At 45%, Shimizu S-Pulse is favored but with meaningful uncertainty; Cerezo Ōsaka sits at 34% with a draw priced at 21%. The probability reflects recent team form, head-to-head records, injury status, and home-field advantage. Key drivers of movement would include confirmed lineups before kickoff, weather conditions on match day, and any late team news affecting key players. The resolution point is the final match result once the fixture is played, which would definitively settle all contracts.

### Key factors

- Shimizu S-Pulse's current league position and recent win-loss record versus Cerezo Ōsaka's standing and recent performance trends
- Head-to-head historical matchup results between these two clubs, including goals-for and goals-against patterns
- Injury or suspension status of key players for either team confirmed within 48 hours of kickoff
- Home-field advantage if the match is at Shimizu's or Cerezo's home stadium, and crowd atmosphere factors
- Current goal differential and defensive strength metrics for each team this season

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/shimizu-spulse-vs-cerezo-saka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=shimizu-spulse-vs-cerezo-saka

## License

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