# Shimizu S-Pulse vs. V-Varen Nagasaki

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/shimizu-spulse-vs-vvaren-nagasaki
Updated: 2026-05-03T20:06:05.344Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x39f38467e79479039a76669f40c9b492b970f73ab332ba1e7106facd5b703efc |
| V-Varen Nagasaki | 39¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-v-varen-nagasa-polymarket-0xc5b7c979a47371ab2fe9076a24d53fedea1c81e0862768652bd11f3a181a53a4 |
| Cerezo Ōsaka | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-cerezo-saka-polymarket-0x87c3405568fdeaf6f7e7e6b396212b4ce8637e3e57f51308effe50224a1b889a |
| Draw (V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama) | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-draw-v-varen-n-polymarket-0xc6a6ba02b3d1b36b00c6cf424f1a58db93bc43bfa8af4ece206bda2aeda4cf59 |
| Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5) | 13¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-shimiz-polymarket-0xc33d1c5ce506ddb23d75e315a0dc7191503b35752a13331c1bb03b4e0f2e62ae |
| Draw (Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka) | 27¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-draw-shimizu-s-puls-polymarket-0xbd1972d70c4630591115085060040b342649031614502b0b4b4b219d13ddc96f |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x2871c097f22fc551b5aad11d4f65a65bfe943e32a95e3503b19d3fabd76ac97c |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x72e6ac4ae0c7f7f7f27d9cc4852345a4cd3ebfed1beed0c4069b343da355411d |
| Fagiano Okayama | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-fagiano-okayam-polymarket-0x63a827ebe197128569d2af3ced9a787072488d1fbe24d4411dc0ad7d56698c8d |
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 38¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-shimizu-s-pulse-polymarket-0x434537039ebd1deb897d55cff5634d5625c6c29f7faef1a90cd41f64b602a9ae |
| Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5) | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-cerezo-polymarket-0x3391937d9b697a5bd01565766582c3bf31c8227da2901e673fdf86f17afc6144 |
| Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.5) | 18¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-shimiz-polymarket-0x58a32c1a02227c98b8f87cbe8d4ae68c2fd5c63177f81dbcd5d059cf06b77fa2 |
| Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5) | 12¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-cerezo-polymarket-0xbf161f60415e3e1fcbafa287b25cd8af8d21cc294931ae609a766e80193eec44 |
| O/U 1.5 | 78¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x699392956e8574b0068655f04c86340395da905db9a0a1c83691c96f140376a7 |
| V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5) | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-v-polymarket-0x93980066a52457352e6e9e617e27606df45e4f2c57cd51c3cc87b772315662bf |
| Fagiano Okayama (-2.5) | 7¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-f-polymarket-0xf65661563cdb776db46549f455dc77ef0c1cc89a0b39b126c4d7f3dfedc81cc3 |
| V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5) | 17¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-v-polymarket-0xa74e6079ee29906a5e317f14da648768eca1570ba620d2426cb68392a228fec0 |
| Fagiano Okayama (-1.5) | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-f-polymarket-0x1b0ea45be3a63fcf68d481151d5534fdb085c83681909da802751bbb4ce0e439 |
| O/U 1.5 | 69¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x07a43571c8c72f5d007d7289f8df4242d39670b84a1a7a573ded0f340625b319 |
| Both Teams to Score | 55¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-both-t-polymarket-0xfb2380378688704b47494565f0cefde372a42d15936b8d92a9350bfe9e8afa88 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 40 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Fagiano Okayama (-2.5) +4pp 28→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · O/U 4.5 +3pp 31→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5) +3pp 28→31¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/shimizu-spulse-vs-vvaren-nagasaki
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=shimizu-spulse-vs-vvaren-nagasaki

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.