# Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April — 20+

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 5 contracts — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ships-transit-strait-of-hormuz-any-day-april
Updated: 2026-06-19T10:20:20.097Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | 52¢ | −1pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-two-spacex-starships-dock-together-before-202-kalshi-kxstarshipdock-28 |
| União Progressista | 27¢ | +26pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-unio-progressista-hold-1-seats-in-all-27-braz-kalshi-kxbrgovmostseats-26oct04-upro |
| Yes | 37¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-the-governorships-of-pennsylvan-kalshi-kxdemswingstategovsweep-26nov03 |
| PL | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pl-hold-1-seats-in-all-27-brazilian-governors-kalshi-kxbrgovmostseats-26oct04-pl |
| PSD | 30¢ | +29pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-psd-hold-1-seats-in-all-27-brazilian-governor-kalshi-kxbrgovmostseats-26oct04-psd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 43 |
| 2026-06-05 | 50 |
| 2026-06-12 | 52 |
| 2026-06-19 | 52 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-15 · PSD +29pp 1→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · União Progressista +26pp 1→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · PL +19pp 1→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-12 · Before 2028 −9pp 61→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · Before 2028 −4pp 52→48¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ships-transit-strait-of-hormuz-any-day-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ships-transit-strait-of-hormuz-any-day-april
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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