# Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31 — 80+

> 20+ leads at 17%, runner-up 9% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ships-transit-strait-of-hormuz-any-day-may-31
Updated: 2026-05-28T22:20:13.817Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: 20+ at 17%
- Runner-up: 40+ at 9%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $106K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20+ | 17¢ | −20pp | $27K | polymarket | /markets/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-polymarket-0x9bdb4d01b7797953c92c03e98cf7d36e62543b37972435e6b4a1c74f4200b108 |
| 40+ | 9¢ | −11pp | $36K | polymarket | /markets/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-polymarket-0xe02033cef06e942fbe1fdc9cc259abe9682265d349642598ab27ad677083d054 |
| 60+ | 4¢ | −4pp | $43K | polymarket | /markets/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-polymarket-0x4dec0ddb49e5b4c025ee04135a4e1c99c47cb47e12113056f84f41979fc4e4de |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 20+ | 40+ | 60+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 52 | 17 | 11 |
| 2026-05-26 | 51 | 14 | 9 |
| 2026-05-27 | 40 | 19 | 8 |
| 2026-05-28 | 20 | 8 | 4 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · 20+ −20pp 40→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · 40+ −11pp 19→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · 20+ −11pp 51→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · 40+ +5pp 14→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · 60+ −4pp 8→4¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract measures the probability that at least 20 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on a single day between now and May 31, 2026. At 52%, the market currently views this as slightly more likely than not, though the 80+ ship threshold trades at just 3 cents, suggesting very low confidence in exceptionally high traffic. The Strait handles roughly 20-25% of global seaborne petroleum trade, and daily transit volumes fluctuate based on geopolitical tensions, weather, maintenance schedules, and regional conflict activity. The resolution depends entirely on actual ship counts recorded by maritime tracking services on any given day through month-end. Factors pushing probabilities up or down include escalations or de-escalations in regional tensions, shipping disruptions, or changes in global oil demand that affect routing decisions.

### Key factors

- Historical baseline: average daily transits through Hormuz typically range 20-25 ships; market is pricing 20+ as slightly favored
- Regional geopolitical risk: any military incidents, sanctions enforcement, or threat escalation in the Persian Gulf would increase transit uncertainty and volatility
- Oil market dynamics: crude prices and demand directly influence shipping patterns; current price environment affects routing decisions and congestion
- Weather and infrastructure: seasonal conditions, port maintenance, or chokepoint blockages would reduce transits and shift probabilities toward lower thresholds
- Resolution mechanism: daily counts depend on UKMTO, IHS Markit, or similar maritime tracking data; definition of 'transit' and counting methodology are critical

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ships-transit-strait-of-hormuz-any-day-may-31
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ships-transit-strait-of-hormuz-any-day-may-31
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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