# Will Shopify Inc. report Above $116 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026

> Above $108 billion leads at 92%, runner-up 83% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/shop
Updated: 2026-06-26T13:20:49.075Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-04

## Headline

- Leader: Above $108 billion at 92%
- Runner-up: Above $112 billion at 83%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $413

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $108 billion | 92¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shopify-inc-report-above-108-billion-gross-me-kalshi-kxshop-26auggmv-108000000000 |
| Above $112 billion | 83¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shopify-inc-report-above-112-billion-gross-me-kalshi-kxshop-26auggmv-112000000000 |
| Above $116 billion | 43¢ | −4pp | $208 | kalshi | /markets/will-shopify-inc-report-above-116-billion-gross-me-kalshi-kxshop-26auggmv-116000000000 |
| Above $120 billion | 10¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shopify-inc-report-above-120-billion-gross-me-kalshi-kxshop-26auggmv-120000000000 |
| Above $124 billion | 3¢ | −2pp | $205 | kalshi | /markets/will-shopify-inc-report-above-124-billion-gross-me-kalshi-kxshop-26auggmv-124000000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $108 billion | Above $112 billion | Above $116 billion |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | — | 84 | 41 |
| 2026-06-05 | 91 | — | 50 |
| 2026-06-11 | 92 | 84 | 47 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | — | 47 |
| 2026-06-18 | 92 | 84 | 46 |
| 2026-06-26 | 92 | 83 | 43 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · Above $116 billion −4pp 47→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above $120 billion −3pp 13→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market assesses the likelihood that Shopify will report gross merchandise volume (GMV) exceeding $116 billion in Q2 2026. The 61% probability suggests traders view this threshold as more uncertain than the $108 billion baseline (93% likely), reflecting questions about growth acceleration in the second quarter. GMV depends on both merchant sales volume on the platform and currency movements, particularly USD strength against the Canadian dollar. The primary driver of this probability is Shopify's historical growth trajectory and current merchant base size relative to the threshold. Resolution occurs upon Shopify's official Q2 2026 earnings report, typically released in late July or early August. Key uncertainties include e-commerce spending patterns during spring/summer months, macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer purchasing, and competitive dynamics in the platform space.

### Key factors

- Shopify's trailing twelve-month GMV trend as of Q1 2026 and the incremental growth rate needed to reach $116B in Q2 specifically
- Seasonal strength of e-commerce activity in Q2 (spring retail period) compared to historical quarterly averages
- Merchant acquisition and retention rates on the platform, which directly determine transaction volume capacity
- Foreign exchange headwinds or tailwinds, particularly USD/CAD movements that can affect reported GMV figures
- Macroeconomic consumer spending data and retail sales momentum in Shopify's primary markets during the April-June 2026 period

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/shop
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=shop

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.