# Silver (SI) above ___ end of June — $100

> $60 leads at 88%, runner-up 84% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/silver-si-above-june
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.679Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: $60 at 88%
- Runner-up: $65 at 84%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $60 | 88¢ | ±0 | $1 | polymarket | /markets/silver-si-above-end-of-june-60-polymarket-0x34d867aeff04b463703f13cddd9fd311f6756eba27be3037cf1153ab32d0a758 |
| $65 | 84¢ | +2pp | $44 | polymarket | /markets/silver-si-above-end-of-june-65-polymarket-0x32c4b44d717ced697eac47c9d5768b01c4d0cc8e7b6a2b08f28c52b06f1478a8 |
| $70 | 80¢ | +9pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/silver-si-above-end-of-june-70-polymarket-0x915a3b8fee72fc9a3c77b9bada8b7ed1af02dff2bb4fe13f2ade33c0d2611669 |
| $75 | 70¢ | ±0 | $315 | polymarket | /markets/silver-si-above-end-of-june-75-polymarket-0x7c7e938289a1af110fb56821d7e0839e549577e92f99a7a0ce8a3c5b698061ed |
| $80 | 58¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/silver-si-above-end-of-june-80-polymarket-0x1bd11989afe904941c1353cff19896f90a33312c2a6ebc96e120f4b9f1b86b76 |
| $85 | 50¢ | +4pp | $425 | polymarket | /markets/silver-si-above-end-of-june-85-polymarket-0x35f8bbbb8961d5aabd7b50ff4d5aa73897fa021be33a1a9661f67a0400244c8f |
| $90 | 40¢ | −3pp | $270 | polymarket | /markets/silver-si-above-end-of-june-90-polymarket-0xfc1c23e6b01435e0222e652f86ecc498a2d1680f0b63fec90f498418ee2f5a94 |
| $95 | 30¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/silver-si-above-end-of-june-95-polymarket-0x4dffcbc56218b274c4ee89a57555b64b5974c668745b97f21f812a996c00ae39 |
| $100 | 24¢ | −1pp | $89 | polymarket | /markets/silver-si-above-end-of-june-100-polymarket-0xf5c3bf60a78e87281241a3b4009991752b79c3c165216ae77f6a9608d2631488 |
| $110 | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/silver-si-above-end-of-june-110-polymarket-0x7c6a5277a7474f36f632607fd6e8441397477a36680234c9bc45decd6fe5da2e |
| $120 | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/silver-si-above-end-of-june-120-polymarket-0xe381e4050ad2c5c356b28ec5ba7fafae427dce1e37e56040689e0482d2de0556 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $60 | $65 | $70 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 74 | 70 | 65 |
| 2026-04-24 | 80 | 79 | 69 |
| 2026-04-25 | 78 | 79 | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 80 | 74 | 62 |
| 2026-05-02 | 80 | 73 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 88 | 84 | 79 |
| 2026-05-08 | 88 | 86 | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · $70 +9pp 70→79¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $80 +9pp 39→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $70 +8pp 62→70¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $120 −7pp 13→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · $85 +6pp 33→39¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract predicts silver will close above $100 per ounce at the end of June 2026, with the leading market participant pricing this outcome at 81% probability. Silver prices are influenced by macroeconomic conditions, real interest rates, and industrial demand, alongside safe-haven flows during periods of market uncertainty. The June expiration date means resolution depends on spot silver prices in roughly four weeks, making current economic data and Federal Reserve signals key determinants. A significant move in US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, or major industrial demand shifts could shift probabilities materially. The contract's high confidence level reflects market belief that silver is unlikely to fall below $100, though the 19% tail probability suggests meaningful downside risk is still priced in by some participants.

### Key factors

- Current spot silver price relative to $100 strike and historical volatility patterns over the past 30 days
- US real interest rates and 10-year Treasury yields, which typically move inversely to precious metals valuations
- Industrial demand indicators and manufacturing PMI data releases, particularly from China and the eurozone
- Safe-haven demand signals derived from equity market volatility indices and geopolitical risk events
- Volume concentration: the leading contract holds 81% while runner-up is at 75%, indicating moderate consensus rather than unanimous agreement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/silver-si-above-june
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=silver-si-above-june

## License

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