# Will the silver close price be above $57.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT

> above $54.99 leads at 97%, runner-up 96% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/silvermon
Updated: 2026-05-05T12:05:32.190Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-29

## Headline

- Leader: above $54.99 at 97%
- Runner-up: above $55.99 at 96%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $927

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| above $54.99 | 97¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-5499-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t54.99 |
| above $55.99 | 96¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-5599-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t55.99 |
| above $56.99 | 96¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-5699-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t56.99 |
| above $57.99 | 95¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-5799-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t57.99 |
| above $58.99 | 94¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-5899-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t58.99 |
| above $59.99 | 90¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-5999-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t59.99 |
| above $60.99 | 90¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-6099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t60.99 |
| above $61.99 | 88¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-6199-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t61.99 |
| above $62.99 | 86¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-6299-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t62.99 |
| above $63.99 | 84¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-6399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t63.99 |
| above $64.99 | 81¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-6499-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t64.99 |
| above $65.99 | 79¢ | +13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-6599-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t65.99 |
| above $66.99 | 75¢ | +13pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-6699-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t66.99 |
| above $71.99 | 55¢ | +18pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-7199-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t71.99 |
| above $72.99 | 51¢ | +25pp | $54 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-7299-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t72.99 |
| above $73.99 | 49¢ | +19pp | $773 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-7399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t73.99 |
| above $75.99 | 39¢ | +25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-7599-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t75.99 |
| above $80.99 | 19¢ | +8pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-8099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t80.99 |
| above $85.99 | 8¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-8599-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilvermon-26may2917-t85.99 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | above $54.99 | above $55.99 | above $56.99 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 75 | — | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 70 | 62 | 61 |
| 2026-05-03 | 82 | 81 | 81 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · above $72.99 +25pp 23→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · above $75.99 +25pp 12→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · above $56.99 +20pp 61→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · above $57.99 +20pp 61→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · above $73.99 +19pp 25→44¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Traders assess an 89% probability that silver will close above $54.99 per troy ounce on May 29, 2026 at 5 PM EDT. This elevated confidence reflects recent price momentum, with the contract ladder showing traders expect silver to remain in the mid-to-upper $50s range. The market assigns meaningful but minority probability (~47%) to silver reaching $73.99, suggesting upside is possible but not the consensus case. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions affecting industrial demand, broader precious metals market sentiment, and Federal Reserve policy direction through May. The resolution depends entirely on the spot price fixing at the specified time, with no intermediate data releases or scheduled events reshaping the outlook between now and late May. Traders are pricing in relative stability near current levels rather than significant directional moves in either direction.

### Key factors

- Contract prices decline steeply moving upward (89¢ at $54.99 vs. 47¢ at $73.99), indicating market consensus for a narrow range rather than extreme moves
- The 89% probability at $54.99 suggests traders expect silver to remain within striking distance of current prices through May 29
- Technical support and resistance levels, along with USD strength dynamics, will materially influence whether silver stays above mid-$50s thresholds
- Industrial demand forecasts for May 2026 and any shifts in Fed interest rate expectations could push markets toward either extreme of the contract ladder
- Historical silver volatility and correlation with equity markets represent tail-risk scenarios that could move the outcome away from the implied 89% baseline

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/silvermon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=silvermon

## License

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