# Will Ali Truwit be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 11 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/simiami
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.576Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-11

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $685

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashtin Earle | 41¢ | +27pp | $237 | kalshi | /markets/will-ashtin-earle-be-a-runway-model-at-the-si-swim-kalshi-kxsimiami-26jun11-ash |
| Ali Truwit | 29¢ | +14pp | $90 | kalshi | /markets/will-ali-truwit-be-a-runway-model-at-the-si-swimsu-kalshi-kxsimiami-26jun11-ali |
| Jordan Chiles | 12¢ | +8pp | $82 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-chiles-be-a-runway-model-at-the-si-swi-kalshi-kxsimiami-26jun11-jor |
| Olandria Lashae Carthen | 25¢ | +17pp | $48 | kalshi | /markets/will-olandria-lashae-carthen-be-a-runway-model-at-kalshi-kxsimiami-26jun11-ola |
| Nina Agdal | 42¢ | +34pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/will-nina-agdal-be-a-runway-model-at-the-si-swimsu-kalshi-kxsimiami-26jun11-nin |
| Hilary Duff | 4¢ | +4pp | $45 | kalshi | /markets/will-hilary-duff-be-a-runway-model-at-the-si-swims-kalshi-kxsimiami-26jun11-hil |
| Brittany Mahomes | 5¢ | +36pp | $36 | kalshi | /markets/will-brittany-mahomes-be-a-runway-model-at-the-si-kalshi-kxsimiami-26jun11-bri |
| Jilly Anais | 16¢ | +26pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-jilly-anais-be-a-runway-model-at-the-si-swims-kalshi-kxsimiami-26jun11-jil |
| Kristin Juszczyk | 18¢ | +24pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-kristin-juszczyk-be-a-runway-model-at-the-si-kalshi-kxsimiami-26jun11-kri |
| Olivia Dunne | 25¢ | +15pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-olivia-dunne-be-a-runway-model-at-the-si-swim-kalshi-kxsimiami-26jun11-oli |
| Alix Earle | 50¢ | +16pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-alix-earle-be-a-runway-model-at-the-si-swimsu-kalshi-kxsimiami-26jun11-alix |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 18 |
| 2026-05-28 | 38 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Brittany Mahomes +36pp 25→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Nina Agdal +34pp 16→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Ashtin Earle +27pp 22→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Jilly Anais +26pp 17→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Kristin Juszczyk +24pp 19→43¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 42% chance that Ali Truwit will appear as a runway model at Sports Illustrated's Swimsuit fashion show during Miami Swim Week 2026, scheduled for the W South Beach. The probability reflects uncertainty about casting decisions that typically finalize closer to the event date. Key factors include Truwit's prior modeling experience with SI, her social media following and public profile, and how the publication structures its model roster this year. Comparable markets show varied probabilities for other potential models, with some names trading higher (Brittany Mahomes at 50%) and others lower (Sophie Cunningham at 3%), suggesting individual casting decisions remain unpredictable. The uncertainty should largely resolve once SI Swimsuit officially announces the runway lineup, which typically occurs in the weeks immediately preceding the show.

### Key factors

- Ali Truwit's history of appearing in Sports Illustrated content and prior runway show participation
- The timing of official model announcements by SI Swimsuit, which typically occur 2-4 weeks before the scheduled event
- Comparable model probabilities on the same market suggest casting remains genuinely uncertain rather than predetermined
- Truwit's current media presence and brand partnerships relative to competing models in the SI ecosystem
- Whether Swim Week 2026 lineup prioritizes returning established models versus featuring new talent

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/simiami
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=simiami

## License

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