# Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/singapore-vs-china-pr-more-markets
Updated: 2026-06-06T13:20:12.581Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: china
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 0.5 at 95%
- Runner-up: O/U 1.5 at 76%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 95¢ | −1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/singapore-vs-china-pr-more-markets-ou-05-polymarket-0x3079100e129cf38de998977aecfbbc85d4652bdd8085c9a8863f28229362c7f8 |
| O/U 1.5 | 76¢ | +2pp | $113 | polymarket | /markets/singapore-vs-china-pr-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x1e4be4dbbd45072d246877e1dfb602c814c5d5e68bf786d4e587b4745ed13a42 |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | +5pp | $399 | polymarket | /markets/singapore-vs-china-pr-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x6e90e8bf3a2164e8e21795f8c2070132d9f033b31601118fb339af59349549b6 |
| Both Teams to Score | 50¢ | +1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/singapore-vs-china-pr-more-markets-both-teams-to-s-polymarket-0xe8fa2a0baacf3f363355c3a76462d657b92bb3e2de4423d0a93989f0e26fdf9b |
| China PR (-1.5) | 34¢ | +2pp | $135 | polymarket | /markets/singapore-vs-china-pr-more-markets-china-pr-15-polymarket-0x1cdd42be0d757cb61c569b832bfc02bb9785a94cfb0ba76fa7c8558164e55b9e |
| O/U 3.5 | 29¢ | −2pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/singapore-vs-china-pr-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xe137d90ec60ba04ff58db9db64ffd8f46de507ba70281f7d5396cdab6dd23e12 |
| China PR (-2.5) | 16¢ | +2pp | $294 | polymarket | /markets/singapore-vs-china-pr-more-markets-china-pr-25-polymarket-0xe9dbb7bf46d08cd1d495b5edb2723982d3f071aa5b897f5b9c220b4017cd9a24 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/singapore-vs-china-pr-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xcefb42ca03613822c4701025fca331d6aa2d72bd9e94ae223377611b1ac75674 |
| O/U 5.5 | 6¢ | −2pp | $372 | polymarket | /markets/singapore-vs-china-pr-more-markets-ou-55-polymarket-0x62a3a6bc0dd3d891c4ea3dba89fc59f3d82ca8b0985fd332b7a270d17a53e5a0 |
| Singapore (-1.5) | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/singapore-vs-china-pr-more-markets-singapore-15-polymarket-0x812495f753212e91740517bcbe1df89777cb156d2eecfbda59968dcd78dd32cd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 0.5 | O/U 1.5 | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | 79 | 71 | 52 |
| 2026-06-03 | 90 | 79 | 57 |
| 2026-06-04 | 95 | 78 | 54 |
| 2026-06-05 | 94 | 80 | 59 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · O/U 5.5 −15pp 22→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · O/U 4.5 −14pp 30→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · China PR (-2.5) −13pp 32→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · Singapore (-1.5) −12pp 27→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · O/U 0.5 +11pp 79→90¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 92% probability that Singapore and China will establish additional public relations or diplomatic markets within a specified timeframe. The high probability suggests traders view such an arrangement as highly likely, though the contract structure (with spreads at 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, and 5.5 outcomes) indicates uncertainty about the scale or quantity of new markets. Key drivers include current bilateral trade relationships, regulatory alignment between the two economies, and historical precedent for such arrangements. The 81% probability on the 1.5 outcome suggests traders expect between one and two additional markets as a baseline scenario. Resolution will depend on official announcements or regulatory filings from either Singapore's or China's relevant authorities that formally establish new market mechanisms or trading relationships.

### Key factors

- The O/U 0.5 contract at 92% implies traders assign very high confidence to at least one new market being announced or established
- The 39¢ price on China PR (-1.5) indicates material disagreement about whether negative outcomes are priced in
- Trading volume is minimal across most contracts ($3 in 24h volume for the China PR spread), suggesting limited market participation and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- The spread between the O/U 0.5 (92¢) and O/U 1.5 (81¢) contracts reveals a 11-percentage-point probability mass assigned to the second market outcome specifically
- No scheduled announcement or regulatory decision date appears encoded in current prices, suggesting either near-term resolution expected or information asymmetry among traders

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/singapore-vs-china-pr-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=singapore-vs-china-pr-more-markets
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.