# SK Slavia Praha vs. SK Sigma Olomouc - More Markets: SK Sigma Olomouc (-2.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sk-slavia-praha-vs-sk-sigma-olomouc-more-markets-sk-sigma
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 46% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $748

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 64¢ | — | $254 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 2.5 | 57¢ | — | $28 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 28 |
| 2026-05-03 | 26 |
| 2026-05-06 | 35 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that SK Sigma Olomouc will win by more than 2.5 goals against SK Slavia Praha. At 46%, the market views this as slightly less likely than not. The probability reflects Sigma Olomouc's historical performance against top-tier opposition and Slavia Praha's typical goal-scoring efficiency. The outcome will be determined by the actual match result on the scheduled game date. Key drivers include Sigma Olomouc's current form and ability to generate scoring opportunities against a strong defensive side, versus Slavia Praha's consistency in preventing large goal differentials. The market's assessment suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether Sigma Olomouc can overcome the implied challenge of winning by such a margin.

### Key factors

- Sigma Olomouc's goal differential in recent matches against comparable opponents and their current attacking output per game
- Slavia Praha's defensive record, including goals conceded per match and historical performance in matches against lower-ranked teams
- Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two clubs, particularly goal margins in recent seasons
- Team injury status and lineup availability for both sides heading into the match date
- Current league standings and momentum, including whether either team is in a run of form that would affect scoring patterns

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sk-slavia-praha-vs-sk-sigma-olomouc-more-markets-sk-sigma
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sk-slavia-praha-vs-sk-sigma-olomouc-more-markets-sk-sigma

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