# Will St Helens win the Super League Rugby Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 3 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/slrchamp
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.161Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-10-04

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 22¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-leeds-rhinos-win-the-super-league-rugby-champ-kalshi-kxslrchamp-26-lee |
| St Helens | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-st-helens-win-the-super-league-rugby-champion-kalshi-kxslrchamp-26-sth |
| Warrington Wolves | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-warrington-wolves-win-the-super-league-rugby-kalshi-kxslrchamp-26-war |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | 16 |
| 2026-04-14 | 22 |
| 2026-04-15 | 12 |
| 2026-04-27 | 11 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

A 15% probability means the market estimates roughly a one-in-six-and-a-half chance that St Helens will win the Super League Rugby Championship. This relatively low probability reflects St Helens' recent performance trajectory and the competitive strength of rivals like Wigan, Leeds, and Penrith. The probability could shift based on team roster changes, injury status of key players, and performance during the regular season. The championship typically concludes in late September or early October, with the playoffs serving as the primary catalyst for resolving this market. Movements in the probability throughout the season would correlate with St Helens' win-loss record, head-to-head results against top competitors, and any significant personnel changes that affect team composition or performance metrics.

### Key factors

- St Helens' current league position and win-loss record compared to historical averages and direct competitors
- Injury status and availability of roster contributors critical to team performance and match outcomes
- Head-to-head results against top-seeded teams during the regular season that indicate relative competitive strength
- Changes to coaching staff, player trades, or roster composition that materially affect team capability
- St Helens' performance in playoff matches, which directly determine championship eligibility and contention

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/slrchamp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=slrchamp

## License

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