# Smouha SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 1 contract — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/smouha-sc-vs-ceramica-cleopatra-club
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.742Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Ceramica Cleopatra | 39¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/egypt-premier-league-winner-ceramica-cleopatra-polymarket-0x2c7a416bb7e8938f799a26b03c88e1b2b39c5e517259851cb74bcb3ede2dd0b1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 50 |
| 2026-05-02 | 39 |
| 2026-05-09 | 40 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Winner: Ceramica Cleopatra −6pp 42→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Winner: Ceramica Cleopatra −4pp 43→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Winner: Ceramica Cleopatra +3pp 36→39¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 27% probability reflects the market's assessment that Ceramica Cleopatra Club will defeat Smouha SC in an upcoming Egyptian Premier League match. The relatively low probability suggests oddsmakers view Smouha SC as the favored side, likely based on recent form, head-to-head records, or home-field advantage. Key drivers of this probability include each team's current league position and recent performance metrics. The match itself will resolve this contract once final results are confirmed. Traders should monitor team news, injury reports, and any lineup changes in the days leading up to kickoff, as these factors frequently shift probabilities in football markets. The wider Egypt Premier League context—including Ceramica Cleopatra's stated championship odds at 40 cents—may also influence confidence in their ability to win individual fixtures.

### Key factors

- Ceramica Cleopatra is priced at 40¢ to win the Egypt Premier League title, suggesting structural weakness relative to stronger league contenders
- Smouha SC's implied 73% advantage in this specific match indicates significant perceived quality or form difference between the two clubs
- Recent head-to-head results and current league standings would show actual historical performance data between these specific teams
- Home or away status of the match affects typical win probability by 8-15% in most football markets
- Team injury news, suspensions, or recent consecutive fixtures could create sudden probability shifts in the 48 hours before kickoff

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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