# Will Snap Inc. report Above 480 million global daily active users in Q2 2026

> Above 480 million leads at 93%, runner-up 83% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/snap
Updated: 2026-06-26T13:20:51.201Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-03

## Headline

- Leader: Above 480 million at 93%
- Runner-up: Above 484 million at 83%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $38

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 480 million | 93¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-snap-inc-report-above-480-million-global-dail-kalshi-kxsnap-26augdau-480000000 |
| Above 484 million | 83¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-snap-inc-report-above-484-million-global-dail-kalshi-kxsnap-26augdau-484000000 |
| Above 488 million | 61¢ | +4pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/will-snap-inc-report-above-488-million-global-dail-kalshi-kxsnap-26augdau-488000000 |
| Above 492 million | 30¢ | +3pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-snap-inc-report-above-492-million-global-dail-kalshi-kxsnap-26augdau-492000000 |
| Above 496 million | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-snap-inc-report-above-496-million-global-dail-kalshi-kxsnap-26augdau-496000000 |
| Above 500 million | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-snap-inc-report-above-500-million-global-dail-kalshi-kxsnap-26augdau-500000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 480 million | Above 484 million | Above 488 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 53 | 38 | 28 |
| 2026-06-11 | — | 80 | 48 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 80 | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 93 | 82 | 49 |
| 2026-06-18 | 93 | 80 | 50 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 82 | 51 |
| 2026-06-26 | 93 | 84 | 59 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · Above 488 million +4pp 55→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 488 million +3pp 52→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 492 million +3pp 28→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 484 million −3pp 84→81¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets currently assess an 88% probability that Snap will report at least 480 million global daily active users in Q2 2026. This reflects confidence in Snap's recent user growth trajectory, though the tighter clustering of contracts at 484M (68%) and 488M (41%) suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether growth extends beyond the 480M threshold. The primary driver of the high probability is Snap's consistent user expansion over recent quarters; downside risks include potential slowdown in mature markets or shifts in user engagement. Resolution occurs when Snap releases its Q2 2026 earnings report, typically in late July or early August, which will provide official DAU figures. The gap between the 88% and 68% contracts (a 20-percentage-point spread) indicates the market sees 480M as achievable but 484M as materially less certain.

### Key factors

- Snap's DAU growth rate in recent quarters and whether it has maintained or accelerated momentum through Q2 2026
- Geographic distribution of user growth, particularly whether gains in emerging markets offset any deceleration in North America and Europe
- Competitive pressure from TikTok, Instagram Reels, and other platforms, and their impact on Snap's ability to retain and grow its user base
- The specific DAU figure Snap reports in Q2 2026 earnings (official resolution date typically late July/early August), which determines all contract payouts
- Historical variance between analyst estimates and Snap's actual reported DAU to calibrate forecast reliability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/snap
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=snap

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.