# Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL

> Steve Higgins leads at 39%, runner-up 30% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/snl
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:25.251Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Steve Higgins at 39%
- Runner-up: Tina Fey at 30%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $956

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Higgins | 39¢ | +8pp | $299 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-announced-as-lorne-michaels-successor-kalshi-kxsnl-28-sh |
| Tina Fey | 30¢ | +1pp | $155 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-announced-as-lorne-michaels-successor-kalshi-kxsnl-28-tfey |
| Colin Jost | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-announced-as-lorne-michaels-successor-kalshi-kxsnl-28-cj |
| Seth Meyers | 12¢ | ±0 | $502 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-announced-as-lorne-michaels-successor-kalshi-kxsnl-28-smey |
| Kenan Thompson | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-announced-as-lorne-michaels-successor-kalshi-kxsnl-28-kt |
| Maya Rudolp | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-announced-as-lorne-michaels-successor-kalshi-kxsnl-28-mr |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Steve Higgins | Tina Fey | Colin Jost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 52 | 20 | 19 |
| 2026-04-23 | 19 | 26 | 16 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 24 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 43 | 27 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 28 | 16 |
| 2026-05-07 | 39 | 30 | 16 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 16 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Steve Higgins −12pp 43→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Steve Higgins +8pp 31→39¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates that markets currently assess a 43% chance that a specific individual will be formally announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at Saturday Night Live. The succession question reflects uncertainty about NBC's leadership transition at one of television's longest-running shows. The probability level could shift based on announcements from NBC leadership, public statements from potential candidates, or reporting about internal decision timelines. A formal announcement from NBC or confirmation of Michaels' retirement timeline would likely serve as the primary catalyst for resolution. Market participants appear divided on the likely successor, with the leading candidate at 43% and the runner-up at 26%, suggesting meaningful disagreement about the outcome rather than consensus.

### Key factors

- Lorne Michaels has not publicly announced a retirement date or timeline for succession at SNL
- The identity of the leading candidate at 43% probability has not been confirmed through market data provided here
- NBC has not made an official statement designating an heir apparent or succession plan for the show's leadership
- SNL's production and format decisions influence both the pool of potential successors and market participants' assessments of each candidate's viability
- Historical precedent shows SNL leadership transitions are typically announced well before implementation, creating multiple opportunities for new information to change market odds

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/snl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=snl

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.