# São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 6 contracts — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/so-paulo-fc-vs-mirassol-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:52.334Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 50% / Polymarket 26% — 24pp spread
- 24h volume: $517

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarcísio de Freitas | 81¢ | +6pp | $421 | kalshi | /markets/will-tarcsio-de-freitas-win-the-2026-so-paulo-gube-kalshi-kxspgov-26oct04-tfre |
| Winner: São Paulo | 5¢ | +3pp | $50 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-a-winner-so-paulo-polymarket-0x1b42fe612e6be026a1da4f73027d03ab8f8c7b6b5e99af0019f2533b68cb5e34 |
| Mirassol FC | 62¢ | — | $46 | polymarket | /markets/mirassol-fc-vs-ldu-de-quito-mirassol-fc-polymarket-0xb0e76a74159b58ca3e1bc78d9a0f08ba56c25a21958215665500a6cd5bbfd967 |
| Fernando Haddad | 19¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fernando-haddad-win-the-2026-so-paulo-guberna-kalshi-kxspgov-26oct04-fhad |
| Draw (Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito) | 24¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mirassol-fc-vs-ldu-de-quito-draw-mirassol-fc-vs-ld-polymarket-0xd5d33c2faa1d9d40ab5de073dd12fa6a13e67dc5e2e3a020a3c1ee189ded5228 |
| LDU de Quito | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mirassol-fc-vs-ldu-de-quito-ldu-de-quito-polymarket-0xccb69805e72db787fac2e14fd0bf66f410b4db64ddba86757755938c769c74f8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 4 |
| 2026-04-26 | 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | 7 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Winner: São Paulo +13pp 3→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Winner: São Paulo −7pp 16→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · Tarcísio de Freitas +6pp 73→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Winner: São Paulo −3pp 9→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Winner: São Paulo +3pp 4→7¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/so-paulo-fc-vs-mirassol-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=so-paulo-fc-vs-mirassol-fc

## License

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