# São Paulo Governor Election Winner

> Tarcísio de Freitas leads at 84%, runner-up 8% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/so-paulo-governor-election-winner
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:11.468Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-04

## Headline

- Leader: Tarcísio de Freitas at 84%
- Runner-up: Kim Kataguiri at 8%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $74

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarcísio de Freitas | 84¢ | −1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/so-paulo-governor-election-winner-tarcsio-de-freit-polymarket-0x7fad7ba14804a90a2c45352bd52689be4703013123772044badbcf688b79bcee |
| Kim Kataguiri | 8¢ | −1pp | $69 | polymarket | /markets/so-paulo-governor-election-winner-kim-kataguiri-polymarket-0x3b4b2049e1850b8a9a94bef61984a4779e2b5403c65cf87dfa0198847bef02a9 |
| Fernando Haddad | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/so-paulo-governor-election-winner-fernando-haddad-polymarket-0xf86b558bbb9954ccdd5c72841d33336a6a7ff690908df00a9240decc04d4baa9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Tarcísio de Freitas | Kim Kataguiri | Fernando Haddad |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 84 | 6 | — |
| 2026-05-23 | 89 | 6 | 5 |
| 2026-05-27 | 84 | 8 | 6 |
| 2026-05-29 | — | — | 6 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-23 · Tarcísio de Freitas +5pp 84→89¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · Tarcísio de Freitas −3pp 89→86¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current market expectation that Tarcísio de Freitas will win the São Paulo gubernatorial race, with an 84% chance priced in. The high confidence in de Freitas is likely driven by his incumbent status, polling leads, and political alignment with the national administration. The 9% for Fernando Haddad and 6% for Kim Kataguiri suggest meaningful but smaller probabilities for alternative outcomes. The probability would shift materially on new polling data, campaign developments, or scandals affecting any candidate. The election is scheduled for late 2026, with campaign dynamics and voter sentiment potentially moving markets significantly in coming months as the race intensifies.

### Key factors

- Tarcísio de Freitas holds incumbent advantage as current São Paulo Governor, a structural factor typically associated with higher re-election odds
- Recent polling data on voting intention in São Paulo state and approval ratings for the current governor would directly validate or contradict the 84% pricing
- Campaign finance disclosures and spending levels by competing candidates, which affect media reach and organizational capacity in a large state
- Any major corruption allegations, resignations, or health issues affecting de Freitas or primary challengers would likely trigger sharp price movements
- Election date is scheduled for October 2026, meaning uncertainty should compress significantly in Q3-Q4 as voting approaches and final polling emerges

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/so-paulo-governor-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=so-paulo-governor-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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