# Will Manchester United win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 20 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/soccertrophies
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:20:51.459Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-15

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $19

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ Trophies | 37¢ | −34pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-barcelona-win-at-least-2-trophies-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27bar-2 |
| 1+ Trophies | 28¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchester-united-win-at-least-1-trophy-in-th-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27mun-1 |
| 1+ Trophies | 11¢ | −4pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-tottenham-win-at-least-1-trophy-in-the-2026-2-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27tot-1 |
| 1+ Trophies | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chelsea-win-at-least-1-trophy-in-the-2026-27-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27cfc-1 |
| 1+ Trophies | 34¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-liverpool-win-at-least-1-trophy-in-the-2026-2-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27lfc-1 |
| 2+ Trophies | 12¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tottenham-win-at-least-2-trophies-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27tot-2 |
| 3 Trophies | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tottenham-win-at-least-3-trophies-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27tot-3 |
| 1+ Trophies | 60¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-madrid-win-at-least-1-trophy-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27rma-1 |
| 2+ Trophies | 41¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-madrid-win-at-least-2-trophies-in-the-20-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27rma-2 |
| 3+ Trophies | 64¢ | +33pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-madrid-win-at-least-3-trophies-in-the-20-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27rma-3 |
| 4 Trophies | 7¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-madrid-win-at-least-4-trophies-in-the-20-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27rma-4 |
| 2+ Trophies | 3¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchester-united-win-at-least-2-trophies-in-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27mun-2 |
| 3+ Trophies | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchester-united-win-at-least-3-trophies-in-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27mun-3 |
| 1+ Trophies | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchester-city-win-at-least-1-trophy-in-the-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27mci-1 |
| 2+ Trophies | 18¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchester-city-win-at-least-2-trophies-in-th-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27mci-2 |
| 3+ Trophies | 9¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchester-city-win-at-least-3-trophies-in-th-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27mci-3 |
| 2+ Trophies | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-liverpool-win-at-least-2-trophies-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27lfc-2 |
| 2+ Trophies | 4¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chelsea-win-at-least-2-trophies-in-the-2026-2-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27cfc-2 |
| 3 Trophies | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chelsea-win-at-least-3-trophies-in-the-2026-2-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27cfc-3 |
| 1+ Trophies | 60¢ | −20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barcelona-win-at-least-1-trophy-in-the-2026-2-kalshi-kxsoccertrophies-27bar-1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 30 |
| 2026-09-07 | 53 |
| 2026-09-12 | 27 |
| 2026-09-19 | 36 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · 2+ Trophies −34pp 71→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · 3+ Trophies +33pp 31→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · 2+ Trophies +20pp 51→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · 1+ Trophies +20pp 60→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · 1+ Trophies −20pp 80→60¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 25% chance Manchester United will win at least one trophy during the 2026-27 season, meaning either a domestic cup, league title, or European competition. The probability reflects Manchester United's competitive standing relative to other Premier League clubs and their historical performance in cup competitions. Key drivers include the team's squad quality and injury record heading into the season, managerial stability and tactical consistency, and the relative strength of competitors like Arsenal (54% probability) and Chelsea (17%). The 2026-27 season will begin in August 2026, with cup competitions starting shortly after. Resolution will occur through the 2027 summer when all domestic and European tournaments conclude. The low probability relative to Arsenal suggests market participants view United as a rebuild-phase club facing well-resourced rivals.

### Key factors

- Manchester United's transfer activity and squad additions in summer 2026 relative to league competitors
- Manager's tenure and track record in winning domestic or European trophies at United
- Early season performance (August-December 2026) in both league and cup competitions
- Injury rates among key players, particularly in midfield and attack
- Draw difficulty in cup competitions and head-to-head matchups against top-6 rivals in knockout stages

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/soccertrophies
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=soccertrophies

## License

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