# Will Social Security be cut?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 2 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/social-security-cuts
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:10.770Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-04

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 4, 2027 | 13¢ | ±0 | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-bill-that-restricts-snap-benefits-become-la-kalshi-kxsnaprestrict-27-jan04 |
| Yes | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-bans-social-media-for-children-before-2027-yes-kalshi-kxsocialmediaban-27jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | 10 |
| 2026-05-25 | 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | 12 |
| 2026-06-08 | 12 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/social-security-cuts
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=social-security-cuts

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.