# Will SOFR hit __ in April — ↑3.74%

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 20 contracts — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sofr-hit-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:27.640Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 24% / Polymarket 27% — 3pp spread
- 24h volume: $401K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $150 | 17¢ | +1pp | $130K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-150-polymarket-0xeda0e0633f131b761cbe6c6e5e16ae347c48d9448a08c5826bfc2c794b63758e |
| ↑ $175 | 8¢ | +3pp | $95K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-175-polymarket-0x7ae064ed7f3c9f4d201ce007b05b3a23f8e824170981c4d301f07301d554f451 |
| ↑ $200 | 4¢ | +1pp | $52K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-200-polymarket-0x5f879a52e5349db7f66d386ca75f1a9bb608fdd6a738a1582681613730b23281 |
| ↓ 45,000 | 28¢ | −2pp | $29K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-45000-polymarket-0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee |
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | 13¢ | ±0 | $19K | polymarket | /markets/will-bitcoin-hit-60k-or-80k-first-polymarket-0xecd961f60dad9a8f4f25f717bc6771e09cddf3077657aafc67a6a528c92aad55 |
| ↓ 40,000 | 22¢ | −1pp | $17K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-40000-polymarket-0x1e5564c1a2a6839cc2780a889437c63786a2c2ec5e95569b710ee659a3e8baa2 |
| ↓ 50,000 | 38¢ | −4pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-50000-polymarket-0xce3c54c3e773e8b3bf73e4c12af93205b21195d03b9c386e22f274b9acfc2c56 |
| Karoline Leavitt | 41¢ | −3pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-karoline-leavitt-leaves-white-house-press-sec-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-klea |
| ↑ 110,000 | 26¢ | +1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-110000-polymarket-0x63eaf41ce1f475323e2202d7dfa3b1def8b82cd166f7007c50bfbf47615c7b01 |
| ↓ 1,000 | 19¢ | +1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0xacb33346b59a2a3770e2391b7d1b0e77d8dcdcf840a66f5fa01d28db43c4e369 |
| ↓ $80 | 50¢ | −1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-80-polymarket-0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5 |
| ↓ 55,000 | 49¢ | −1pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-55000-polymarket-0x752fa61c93f16c4b15e85b0bd438d9c684176b0ea7b319a84c8aca34616e8a8c |
| ↑ $140 | 22¢ | +1pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-june-140-polymarket-0x0443a503a38b90446c8a3826db5ee1323144197ef2b4ed09bcdf545ac104dfcb |
| Kayla Harrison | 7¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-kayla-harrison-be-on-the-ufc-2026-white-house-kalshi-kxcardpresenceufcwh-26jul04-khar |
| ↑ 80,000 | 95¢ | +3pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-80000-polymarket-0x6e1fbd722b0aca8a4e05c7c2f4ff1428d4c97f2ee02056712463d00c1c705a55 |
| ↓ 35,000 | 14¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-35000-polymarket-0x2745c38ff0617cb345c1d2df19b4f74ea777508e07411e88eeb6ab3affcda2a2 |
| ↑ 130,000 | 13¢ | −6pp | $433 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-130000-polymarket-0x885a6abefad122348b4fbd503473d7fd1f9035d0438cf988a7591620f316a859 |
| ↓ 1,500 | 48¢ | +2pp | $360 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| ↑ 200,000 | 4¢ | −8pp | $299 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-200000-polymarket-0xac32e73aa9e0dae801d88d4f81efd2ef3fa0f04b815f3a0e74426f0762e668cd |
| ↑ 5,500 | 10¢ | −2pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-5500-polymarket-0xb75b8c777c5fd934d7fa43d4b3a3f630981b68a362a09471f9a6a6e36c38aac8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 36 |
| 2026-04-19 | 35 |
| 2026-04-26 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 23 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · ↑ 5,500 −17pp 29→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · ↑ 5,500 +16pp 13→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · ↓ 45,000 −9pp 39→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? −9pp 28→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · ↑ 110,000 −9pp 34→25¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sofr-hit-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sofr-hit-april
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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