# SOL price up in next 15 mins

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 19 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sol15m
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:55.324Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 29% / Polymarket 19% — 10pp spread
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $82 to 82.9999 | 8¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/sol-price-on-may-8-2026-82-to-829999-kalshi-kxsole-26may0817-b82 |
| $84 or above | 44¢ | −17pp | $611 | kalshi | /markets/sol-price-on-may-3-2026-84-or-above-kalshi-kxsold-26may0317-t83.9999 |
| Price to Beat: 2.28 | 61¢ | +13pp | $521 | kalshi | /markets/h100-sxm-price-up-in-next-week-price-to-beat-228-kalshi-kxh100w-26may08-2.28 |
| $83 or above | 57¢ | −2pp | $381 | kalshi | /markets/sol-price-on-may-8-2026-83-or-above-kalshi-kxsold-26may0817-t82.9999 |
| $86 or above | 29¢ | −1pp | $317 | kalshi | /markets/sol-price-on-may-8-2026-86-or-above-kalshi-kxsold-26may0817-t85.9999 |
| $83 to 83.9999 | 7¢ | ±0 | $316 | kalshi | /markets/sol-price-on-may-8-2026-83-to-839999-kalshi-kxsole-26may0817-b83 |
| $91 or above | 4¢ | +1pp | $245 | kalshi | /markets/sol-price-on-may-8-2026-91-or-above-kalshi-kxsold-26may0817-t90.9999 |
| $87 or above | 20¢ | ±0 | $208 | kalshi | /markets/sol-price-on-may-8-2026-87-or-above-kalshi-kxsold-26may0817-t86.9999 |
| $85 or above | 4¢ | −15pp | $206 | kalshi | /markets/sol-price-on-may-3-2026-85-or-above-kalshi-kxsold-26may0317-t84.9999 |
| $86 or above | 5¢ | −6pp | $202 | kalshi | /markets/sol-price-on-may-3-2026-86-or-above-kalshi-kxsold-26may0317-t85.9999 |
| $82 to 82.9999 | 11¢ | +6pp | $159 | kalshi | /markets/sol-price-on-may-3-2026-82-to-829999-kalshi-kxsole-26may0317-b82 |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 74¢ | ±0 | $140 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-uber-technologies-inc-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionuber-26may06-oil |
| $88 or above | 13¢ | −1pp | $132 | kalshi | /markets/sol-price-on-may-8-2026-88-or-above-kalshi-kxsold-26may0817-t87.9999 |
| ↑ 320 | 5¢ | −1pp | $125 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-320-polymarket-0xef2804b2532879f71de2e3854337735e7efc61f7e7e8b403891ad29dc59de92c |
| ↑ 600 | 4¢ | −1pp | $67 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-600-polymarket-0x488999d62b8760a76d4e00e784f354a3bd03947c36073562ce65c0f3864185b3 |
| ↓ 60 | 60¢ | −2pp | $6 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-60-polymarket-0x0135f2ed385fd81fa2af3b98720ee3ba440ea4a719636c1493f15a23366fc27e |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 71¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-oil |
| ↑ 180 | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-180-polymarket-0x88ceaf60937fbe7162bf8b763ac311a96e6d871ecc7f68495cc8cda3adefa52e |
| ↑ 300 | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-300-polymarket-0xd4f01de9b51a47bcf5594cfe7ee2b135b8195e574f875081f4f0fba1e8dfe5e2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 33 |
| 2026-04-19 | 39 |
| 2026-04-26 | 51 |
| 2026-05-03 | 21 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Price to Beat: 2.28 +38pp 2→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · $84 or above −17pp 55→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · $85 or above −15pp 28→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Price to Beat: 2.28 +13pp 40→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · ↑ 320 +10pp 6→16¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sol15m
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sol15m

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.