# Solana all time high by ___

> December 31, 2026 leads at 10%, runner-up 6% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/solana-all-time-high
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:50.839Z
Category: general · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: December 31, 2026 at 10%
- Runner-up: September 30, 2026 at 6%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/solana-all-time-high-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0xb5a536a4eb39626c11b66ad358c02cff11cf4f9cb7ee714d8241945bb2b9f7e9 |
| September 30, 2026 | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/solana-all-time-high-by-september-30-2026-polymarket-0x58412e1ecbb05d8351f7fa6d81ab733a06f3734d3f67d06aea35db61b6d21f9b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31, 2026 | September 30, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 10 | — |
| 2026-04-21 | 12 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 15 | 28 |
| 2026-05-01 | 10 | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | 10 | 7 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · September 30, 2026 −21pp 28→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · December 31, 2026 −4pp 15→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · December 31, 2026 +3pp 12→15¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market asks whether Solana will reach a new all-time high by a specific date. At 10%, traders currently assign a low probability to this outcome. Solana's previous all-time high was approximately $260 in November 2021. For this to resolve positively, SOL would need substantial appreciation from current levels, requiring either broad crypto market strength or Solana-specific adoption catalysts. The main drivers of the probability are Bitcoin and Ethereum momentum—both showing modest positive pricing for all-time-high outcomes by mid-to-late 2026—and Solana's competitive position among layer-1 blockchains. Network activity, validator growth, and TVL trends will influence whether traders believe Solana can outpace its previous peak. The key uncertainty is whether macro conditions and competitive dynamics permit Solana to capture significant capital flows relative to other assets through the contract expiration date.

### Key factors

- Solana's current price relative to its ~$260 November 2021 all-time high and the capital appreciation required to exceed it
- Trading volume and daily active users on Solana relative to competing layer-1 chains, measurable on-chain
- Bitcoin and Ethereum all-time-high probabilities (19% and 13% by December 2026 respectively), indicating overall market sentiment on crypto gains
- Total value locked and application ecosystem growth on Solana, trackable through major DeFi and NFT platforms
- Macro conditions: spot Bitcoin ETF flows, regulatory developments, and interest rate environment affecting risk asset appetite through contract expiration

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/solana-all-time-high
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=solana-all-time-high
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

## License

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