# Will at least 40 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026

> At least 35 GWdc leads at 91%, runner-up 87% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/solar
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.184Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: At least 35 GWdc at 91%
- Runner-up: At least 40 GWdc at 87%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 35 GWdc | 91¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-35-gwdc-of-solar-capacity-be-install-kalshi-kxsolar-26-35 |
| At least 40 GWdc | 87¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-40-gwdc-of-solar-capacity-be-install-kalshi-kxsolar-26-40 |
| At least 45 GWdc | 72¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-45-gwdc-of-solar-capacity-be-install-kalshi-kxsolar-26-45 |
| At least 50 GWdc | 48¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-50-gwdc-of-solar-capacity-be-install-kalshi-kxsolar-26-50 |
| At least 55 GWdc | 20¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-at-least-55-gwdc-of-solar-capacity-be-install-kalshi-kxsolar-26-55 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 35 GWdc | At least 40 GWdc | At least 45 GWdc |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 84 | — |
| 2026-04-11 | 91 | 84 | 65 |
| 2026-04-14 | 90 | 84 | 66 |
| 2026-04-22 | 91 | 85 | 68 |
| 2026-04-23 | — | 86 | 72 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | — | 71 |
| 2026-04-29 | — | — | 72 |
| 2026-05-06 | 92 | 87 | 72 |
| 2026-05-07 | 91 | — | — |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether the United States will install at least 40 gigawatts of solar capacity during 2026. The 91% probability reflects market participants' assessment that this installation target is highly likely to be met. Solar deployment has accelerated in recent years due to falling costs, tax incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act, and corporate renewable energy commitments. The main factors supporting high confidence are existing project pipelines and construction timelines already underway; the main downside risks involve supply chain disruptions, permitting delays, or financing constraints. Resolution hinges on year-end 2026 data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration or Solar Energy Industries Association reporting total installed capacity for the calendar year.

### Key factors

- U.S. solar installations in 2023 totaled approximately 31 GWdc; reaching 40 GWdc represents a 29% increase year-over-year
- The Inflation Reduction Act tax credits and investment tax incentives directly reduce the cost of projects that were planned or partially financed before 2026
- Utility-scale solar projects under construction have typical 18-36 month lead times; pipeline visibility is relatively high for early-2026 starts
- Supply chain constraints for solar panels and inverters have eased substantially since 2021-2022, reducing project delay risk
- Manufacturing incentives and tariff structures will influence component costs and completion rates in the second half of 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/solar
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=solar

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.