# Will SOL trimmed mean be above $105.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 3 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/solmaxmon-sol
Updated: 2026-06-23T03:20:49.875Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $829

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $90.00 | 3¢ | −1pp | $829 | kalshi | /markets/will-sol-trimmed-mean-be-above-9000-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxsolmaxmon-sol-26jun30-9000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 22 |
| 2026-06-12 | 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | 2 |
| 2026-06-25 | 1 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Solana's trimmed mean price will exceed $105 by the end of April 2026, currently priced at 4% probability. The low probability reflects skepticism that SOL will appreciate significantly from recent levels over the next ten months. The main factor supporting higher prices would be sustained institutional adoption or positive regulatory developments for crypto assets, while macroeconomic headwinds, competitive pressures from other blockchains, or broader market downturns could keep prices lower. SOL's actual price movement through Q3 and Q4 2025, alongside Bitcoin's trajectory (which historically correlates with altcoin performance), will be the primary driver of how this uncertainty resolves.

### Key factors

- SOL's current trading price relative to $105 target and historical volatility patterns
- Bitcoin's price direction and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment through late 2025 and early 2026
- Regulatory announcements or policy changes affecting crypto asset classification and trading in major markets
- Solana network adoption metrics and competitive positioning versus Ethereum and other Layer 1 blockchains
- Macroeconomic conditions and risk-on sentiment in equities and alternative assets heading into April 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/solmaxmon-sol
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=solmaxmon-sol

## License

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