# Will Megan Thee Stallion release a new song 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 82% across 18 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/songrelease
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.993Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-08

## Headline

- Probability: 82% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $176

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Migos | 19¢ | −1pp | $176 | kalshi | /markets/will-migos-release-a-new-song-2026-migos-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-mig |
| Taylor Swift | 81¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-release-a-new-song-2026-taylor-s-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-tay |
| Bad Bunny | 91¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bad-bunny-release-a-new-song-2026-bad-bunny-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-bad |
| The Weeknd | 76¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-weeknd-release-a-new-song-2026-the-weeknd-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-wee |
| Justin Bieber | 77¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-bieber-release-a-new-song-2026-justin-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-jus |
| Ariana Grande | 95¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariana-grande-release-a-new-song-2026-ariana-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-ari |
| Ed Sheeran | 87¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ed-sheeran-release-a-new-song-2026-ed-sheeran-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-eds |
| Eminem | 83¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eminem-release-a-new-song-2026-eminem-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-emi |
| Rihanna | 70¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rihanna-release-a-new-song-2026-rihanna-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-rih |
| Billie Eilish | 89¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-billie-eilish-release-a-new-song-2026-billie-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-bil |
| Kendrick Lamar | 88¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kendrick-lamar-release-a-new-song-2026-kendri-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-ken |
| Post Malone | 91¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-post-malone-release-a-new-song-2026-post-malo-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-pos |
| Future | 94¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-future-release-a-new-song-2026-future-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-fut |
| Coldplay | 86¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-coldplay-release-a-new-song-2026-coldplay-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-col |
| Nicki Minaj | 89¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nicki-minaj-release-a-new-song-2026-nicki-min-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-nic |
| Dua Lipa | 91¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dua-lipa-release-a-new-song-2026-dua-lipa-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-dua |
| 21 Savage | 88¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-21-savage-release-a-new-song-2026-21-savage-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-21s |
| Beyoncé | 87¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-beyonc-release-a-new-song-2026-beyonc-kalshi-kxsongrelease-27jan01-bey |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 56 |
| 2026-04-25 | 85 |
| 2026-05-02 | 76 |
| 2026-05-08 | 54 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Migos +14pp 16→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Migos +12pp 4→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Rihanna +5pp 53→58¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates an 84% chance that Megan Thee Stallion releases at least one new song during 2026. The prediction reflects market expectations based on her recent release patterns and industry norms for established hip-hop artists. The high confidence level suggests traders expect her to maintain regular output, consistent with her career trajectory. Key factors pushing this estimate upward include her track record of regular releases and the broad definition of 'a new song,' which covers singles, features, or album tracks. Factors that could lower the probability include extended hiatuses, focus on other projects, or personal circumstances limiting recording activity. The exact resolution date and format (studio version, feature, remix, etc.) will determine the final outcome.

### Key factors

- Her release history in 2024-2025 establishes baseline expectations for annual output frequency
- The definition of 'new song' is inclusive of singles, features, or album tracks rather than requiring a full album
- Any announced tour dates, album announcements, or studio session updates before year-end would provide concrete signals
- Extended radio silence or public statements deprioritizing music releases would contradict the 84% expectation
- Release patterns of comparable artists in hip-hop suggest most maintain at least one new track annually

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/songrelease
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=songrelease

## License

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