# Will Drake release a new song before May 9, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 88% across 1 contract — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/songreleasedate
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.135Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-16

## Headline

- Probability: 88% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $660

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 16, 2026 | 88¢ | −6pp | $660 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-release-a-new-song-before-may-16-2026-b-kalshi-kxsongreleasedate-26dra-may16 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 48 |
| 2026-04-24 | 66 |
| 2026-05-02 | 73 |
| 2026-05-07 | 78 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Before May 16, 2026 +23pp 50→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Before May 16, 2026 +10pp 74→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Before May 16, 2026 −6pp 84→78¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 73% probability reflects traders' assessment that Drake will release a new song within the next six days (by May 9, 2026). This estimate is notably higher than typical market uncertainty, suggesting either recent signals about an imminent release or strong historical precedent for Drake announcements in this timeframe. The probability could shift significantly based on official announcements from Drake's social media, his label, or music platforms, which typically provide advance notice or same-day releases. The resolution date of May 9 is the hard deadline; any release after that date resolves the contract as no. Key drivers include whether Drake or his team has teased upcoming music, current promotional activity across his channels, and seasonal release patterns in hip-hop markets.

### Key factors

- Drake has a documented history of surprise releases and advance announcements; absence of recent social media teasing or label activity would lower the probability
- The narrow 6-day window (May 3-9) constrains the timeframe significantly; most major releases require at least some promotional lead time
- Related Kalshi contracts show 95-97% probability Drake releases 'Iceman' before June-July, suggesting traders expect a release soon but possibly after May 9
- Current 24-hour volume on the June 1 Iceman contract ($4,434) indicates active interest in Drake release timing, but the May 9 contract has lower visibility
- The 73% leader price versus 17% runner-up shows significant confidence in the yes outcome, but not overwhelming certainty typical of near-certain events

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/songreleasedate
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=songreleasedate

## License

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