# South Africa vs. Korea Republic

> Korea Republic leads at 46%, runner-up 37% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/south-africa-vs-korea-republic
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.150Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-25

## Headline

- Leader: Korea Republic at 46%
- Runner-up: Draw (South Africa vs. Korea Republic) at 37%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korea Republic | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/south-africa-vs-korea-republic-korea-republic-polymarket-0x374d4c9c12e766653de985450899cf2181edf47189894bc9c870216b5c6b1d83 |
| Draw (South Africa vs. Korea Republic) | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/south-africa-vs-korea-republic-draw-south-africa-v-polymarket-0x16c51ebf6cea99ba2d958910e743690b40c46c2a426eab1709cd934d8364a96c |
| South Africa | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/south-africa-vs-korea-republic-south-africa-polymarket-0xe9b6af2b81a59d36a47915db6f54b6af0e3dd19883382aacc41fe82e43cc2313 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Korea Republic | Draw (South Africa vs. Korea Republic) | South Africa |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 42 | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 45 | — | 33 |
| 2026-05-02 | 46 | 37 | 31 |
| 2026-05-07 | 45 | 37 | 31 |
| 2026-05-08 | 46 | — | 32 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market reflects traders' assessment that South Africa has a 46% chance of winning an upcoming match against Korea Republic, with Korea at 36% and a tie at 8%. The probability suggests a competitive matchup with South Africa slightly favored. The current level likely reflects recent team performance metrics, head-to-head history, and player availability. The match itself will definitively resolve this market—the result will either confirm or contradict current pricing. Key drivers include each team's form leading into the fixture, any injury concerns affecting key players, and historical performance in similar competitive contexts. Low trading volume ($59 in 24-hour volume on the tie contract) suggests limited liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads, which may make prices more susceptible to sharp shifts as the match date approaches or new information emerges about team conditions.

### Key factors

- South Africa is priced 10 percentage points higher than Korea Republic (46% vs 36%), indicating marginal market favoritism but not overwhelming confidence
- Match outcome is binary or near-binary (tie at only 8%), suggesting markets expect a decisive result
- Tie contract trades at 8 cents with minimal volume ($59/24h), indicating low conviction or limited trader interest in draw scenarios
- Related market shows Korea at only 26% against Mexico, potentially creating arbitrage signals if comparable strength assessments differ
- Low absolute liquidity across these contracts ($59-$52 range) means small trades could move prices meaningfully before match resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/south-africa-vs-korea-republic
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=south-africa-vs-korea-republic

## License

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