# South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner

> Pamela Evette leads at 81%, runner-up 12% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/south-carolina-governor-republican-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-06-08T23:20:09.340Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-09

## Headline

- Leader: Pamela Evette at 81%
- Runner-up: Alan Wilson at 12%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $34K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pamela Evette | 81¢ | −3pp | $23K | polymarket | /markets/south-carolina-governor-republican-primary-winner-polymarket-0x2ff32cec61a2e9924b5e1207974fdb171efe4568bff1aff58b3d15b26237b36b |
| Alan Wilson | 12¢ | +6pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/south-carolina-governor-republican-primary-winner-polymarket-0xfec5e4fb10dd82bc4fb945dfed9c126a244f1bc3311a6a28c7a1515580ebc190 |
| Rom Reddy | 3¢ | −4pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/south-carolina-governor-republican-primary-winner-polymarket-0x10a20956b691ec23cc56b1a23c9854fbb41bae159636491274989758d74d80a6 |
| Nancy Mace | 3¢ | −2pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/south-carolina-governor-republican-primary-winner-polymarket-0xf561223517565f676701a566c17c4f460cfc5bf7d437dc4cc9ba194c4c099509 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Pamela Evette | Alan Wilson | Rom Reddy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 36 | 35 | — |
| 2026-05-22 | 36 | 38 | 1 |
| 2026-05-28 | 33 | 35 | 6 |
| 2026-06-04 | 66 | 27 | 3 |
| 2026-06-10 | 77 | 20 | 1 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Pamela Evette −15pp 81→66¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · Alan Wilson +14pp 13→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · Alan Wilson −8pp 25→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · Alan Wilson −7pp 27→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-10 · Alan Wilson +6pp 14→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The current 35% probability reflects the market's assessment that a particular candidate leads the South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary race, though no outcome is heavily favored—the top four candidates range from 21% to 35%. The primary outcome will be determined by voter preferences in South Carolina's Republican primary election, with key drivers including candidate name recognition, fundraising totals, endorsements from state party leadership, and turnout patterns among different voter segments. The Republican primary election date, along with any major polling releases or campaign developments in the months preceding it, will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this market. Currently fragmented support across multiple viable candidates suggests genuine uncertainty about who will ultimately secure the nomination.

### Key factors

- Top candidate has 35% implied probability while runner-up holds 30%, indicating competitive field with no dominant frontrunner across four major candidates
- Pricing varies significantly across platforms and specific candidate contracts, suggesting liquidity concentration and potential arbitrage opportunities reflecting uncertainty
- 24-hour trading volumes range from $1,380 to $2,619 across related contracts, indicating moderate but not exceptional market engagement for this race
- Candidate fundraising levels, donor support networks, and grassroots organization strength will measurably affect final primary vote shares
- Official South Carolina Republican primary election date will serve as the hard resolution point, with all current probabilities representing pre-election market expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/south-carolina-governor-republican-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=south-carolina-governor-republican-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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