# South Korea By-Elections

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 97% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/south-korea-elections
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.926Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-03

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $4

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party Winner: Democratic Party of Korea (DP) | 97¢ | −1pp | $4 | polymarket | /markets/south-korea-by-elections-party-winner-democratic-p-polymarket-0x9d5c63e344e6f6227282289df2a6220c8bf50384fca510703a6299b7ae04121f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 95 |
| 2026-04-25 | 98 |
| 2026-05-02 | 98 |
| 2026-05-09 | 97 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectation that South Korea's Democratic Party of Korea (DP) will win the most seats in upcoming by-elections. The high 97% level suggests strong confidence in a DP victory, likely driven by recent polling data and the party's current political standing relative to the conservative People Power Party (PPP). Key factors pushing the probability up include favorable approval ratings or seat projections for the DP, while unfavorable election-day turnout or last-minute political shifts could lower it. The main resolution catalyst is the actual by-election results, which will determine the exact seat distribution between parties. Market participants are also tracking related outcomes like the specific number of seats won by the PPP and leadership changes within the ruling coalition.

### Key factors

- Most recent polling numbers showing DP vote share and projected seat allocation relative to PPP
- Voter turnout patterns and demographic composition of districts holding by-elections compared to historical baselines
- Any significant political scandals or leadership announcements affecting either major party in the weeks before voting
- Official by-election date and final candidate rosters from both DP and PPP
- Real-time exit polling or early voting data if available on election day itself

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/south-korea-elections
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=south-korea-elections
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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