# South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026 — 4.0–4.4%

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/south-korea-gdp-growth-yoy-q2
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-23

## Headline

- Leader: 3.0–3.4% at 42%
- Runner-up: 2.5–2.9% at 41%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0–3.4% | 42¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/south-korea-gdp-growth-yoy-in-q2-2026-3034-polymarket-0xa656297ec6f9a3fca7e5164e0247bace3e641afc415d4a64ffb4f6e11bc72939 |
| 2.5–2.9% | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/south-korea-gdp-growth-yoy-in-q2-2026-2529-polymarket-0x9b1fcab34a900d498a84e7691d8fb1dbb83ba74eb00cc3b27fe669f32ebd6d53 |
| 1.5–1.9% | 34¢ | +11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/south-korea-gdp-growth-yoy-in-q2-2026-1519-polymarket-0xa447c8b4931f8736018a9adb0f4ee26d1fcfefa1d442c8eca6c8b15a39c8b78a |
| 3.5–3.9% | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/south-korea-gdp-growth-yoy-in-q2-2026-3539-polymarket-0xcc76f09c637c421ac812bfa7df0aa0c83dda264aece5fa90f67e74580a9b6e69 |
| 4.5%+ | 27¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/south-korea-gdp-growth-yoy-in-q2-2026-45-polymarket-0x788a06fb0e443cecb6e6187336f18203f864a80b87e349b9152c755f945e1ae0 |
| 2.0–2.4% | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/south-korea-gdp-growth-yoy-in-q2-2026-2024-polymarket-0xbb58b9ede928127eed02d2aee3d493bee565565553c2c2124a37cb406e28551f |
| 4.0–4.4% | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/south-korea-gdp-growth-yoy-in-q2-2026-4044-polymarket-0x9b573e0a302903bb286a1f7868005011b6894f83e6fba4ed6c380c88ec3e03e2 |
| <1.5% | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/south-korea-gdp-growth-yoy-in-q2-2026-15-polymarket-0x93970fd772d2716fc4a0115d5ad0c9479d8cf86fee0625a65d226a89fd79f79e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 3.0–3.4% | 2.5–2.9% | 1.5–1.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 25 | 45 | 39 |
| 2026-06-10 | 46 | 41 | 23 |
| 2026-06-17 | 43 | 39 | 27 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 40 | 38 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-17 · 1.5–1.9% +17pp 10→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · 1.5–1.9% +11pp 27→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · 4.5%+ +4pp 9→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · 2.5–2.9% −3pp 42→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · 3.5–3.9% −3pp 37→34¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract reflects traders' assessment that South Korea's year-over-year GDP growth in Q2 2026 will fall between 4.0% and 4.4%. The 4.0–4.4% band is currently priced at 5 cents, indicating low probability relative to the leading 3.0–3.4% band at 42 cents. Market pricing suggests consensus around slower growth, likely reflecting concerns about global demand, semiconductor export cycles, and domestic consumption patterns. The leading lower-growth scenario dominates, while faster growth outcomes (4.5%+) trade at just 7 cents. South Korea's Q2 GDP data will be released by Statistics Korea in late August 2026, which will definitively resolve this contract. Until then, traders are monitoring manufacturing surveys, export figures, and global growth indicators to assess whether actual momentum supports faster or slower expansion than the 4.0–4.4% threshold.

### Key factors

- Q2 2026 preliminary GDP data release scheduled for late August 2026; this official publication directly resolves the contract
- The 4.0–4.4% band trades at only 5 cents while the 3.0–3.4% band leads at 42 cents, indicating market consensus favors slower growth outcomes
- South Korea's semiconductor and export sectors are cyclically sensitive; global manufacturing PMI and chip demand trends will influence whether actual growth reaches 4.0%+
- The leading probability (42%) belongs to the lower 3.0–3.4% band, not the 4.0–4.4% outcome; no single outcome approaches 50%
- Zero trading volume across all eight contracts in the past 24 hours suggests limited recent price discovery or market activity on this event

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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