# Where is the S&P 500 heading?

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sp500-prediction
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:40:52.237Z
Category: economy
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $605K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $6,000 | 0¢ | +1pp | $126K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-hit-by-end-of-june-6000-polymarket-0x4da3a5e2a18e682f7b6407ef1c853adf09de0a3e1a5637879827ac11792f5166 |
| ↓ $6,300 | 0¢ | −2pp | $124K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-hit-by-end-of-june-6300-polymarket-0x8ad67416f1aee0c26200848b8f663322d251946cdd552bd6c7a4ea262582ac73 |
| ↑ $8,000 | 0¢ | −2pp | $49K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-hit-by-end-of-june-8000-polymarket-0x3c71361d4ba3647619c72661c30f9942d1fd1e9885dd982c280177a6884a773e |
| ↑ $7,700 | 3¢ | −13pp | $44K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-hit-by-end-of-june-7700-polymarket-0x0357f760e337c64f62a83f89f0bc99faf22778453188878330cc39a535eaf68a |
| ↓ $5,200 | 14¢ | +1pp | $32K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-hit-by-end-of-december-5200-polymarket-0xbddb2c29c3ca9ec66ec94e9c5e2ccbe227f6ae6adc93ce86732ebc632147fedb |
| ↓ $6,200 | 34¢ | ±0 | $28K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-hit-by-end-of-december-6200-polymarket-0x63e5bdd1d9079da369f41a2f5c3b7e6ce3dd7effcadcdd23387dd59447ce80fe |
| ↑ $7,850 | 1¢ | −7pp | $28K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-hit-by-end-of-june-7850-polymarket-0x8bfb906478c4b122ac55699de7b2dd2f54a8f4041ebbb8b6d550e0fbeca16186 |
| ↓ $4,500 | 6¢ | ±0 | $28K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-hit-by-end-of-december-4500-polymarket-0xdda8b52c6bf2cf875f57572345caca0c145924d782b9e4838ca4fdf2186fb9eb |
| ↓ $6,700 | 1¢ | −1pp | $27K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-hit-by-end-of-june-6700-polymarket-0x1fa18598f50a0667090eaf5c8ce3e8050284d35adfbff2f23c3a63708220766e |
| ↓ $5,800 | 22¢ | ±0 | $26K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-hit-by-end-of-december-5800-polymarket-0x6331d6322a6398a5b42be7cd2ce72c87bbc69276eaea5866620828018165cee3 |
| ↓ $7,100 | 13¢ | +5pp | $23K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-hit-by-end-of-june-7100-polymarket-0xce8a622c7decfa7d4a5444836cdb9034a662ad20fca12c4a2d21c17045f00483 |
| ↓ $6,500 | 1¢ | −1pp | $20K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-hit-by-end-of-june-6500-polymarket-0x6d0de6333c365458681e8f41afd1854477c5a79af9a61750b0e466021946508a |
| <$6,000 | 12¢ | ±0 | $18K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-close-at-end-of-2026-6000-polymarket-0xd9bdd7fbf3ba219c649424fa62180bfe139865ade439f5a48010d5e2c3980241 |
| ↓ $6,900 | 4¢ | −2pp | $16K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-hit-by-end-of-june-6900-polymarket-0x7a808079973806afb2c4122da5fdf3d91db86985893b87ffbe39f57735ba259a |
| ↑ $8,600 | 13¢ | +2pp | $15K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spx-hit-by-end-of-december-8600-polymarket-0x2db4eeedaaaf26e7c5eea272a1a3cdef49597fafa7e276e90633bcd21a2e1014 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 18 |
| 2026-06-12 | 15 |
| 2026-06-18 | 13 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The S&P 500 is currently trading at $734, with prediction markets indicating virtually no probability of the index hitting extreme thresholds like $8,000 by the end of June. While outlooks for the remainder of the year remain conservative, markets currently assign a 34% probability that the index closes below $6,200 by December.

### Key factors

- SPY current price $734
- December volatility expectations
- Limited upside momentum

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sp500-prediction
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sp500-prediction

## License

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