# Will SpaceX IPO in 2026?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 97% across 1 contract — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spacex-ipo
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.403Z
Category: markets · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $25K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 15 | 97¢ | ±0 | $25K | polymarket | /markets/spacex-ipo-by-june-15-polymarket-0x13ca9f55fed9ce4094d90fe1ab5f63c0d371d1589dfffe247a3c1c13d6fb0477 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 16 |
| 2026-05-25 | 85 |
| 2026-06-01 | 86 |
| 2026-06-07 | 96 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · June 15 +6pp 88→94¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · June 15 +4pp 82→86¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spacex-ipo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=spacex-ipo
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.