# SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

> June 30 leads at 92%, runner-up 88% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spacex-starship-flight-test-12
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.147Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: June 30 at 92%
- Runner-up: May 31 at 88%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 92¢ | +19pp | $32 | polymarket | /markets/spacex-starship-flight-test-12-june-30-polymarket-0xf32b4a217c6af98fcb7febd932f9a272af0ba8649f3731cbbba5f8ed700b081e |
| May 31 | 88¢ | +7pp | $545 | polymarket | /markets/spacex-starship-flight-test-12-may-31-polymarket-0xf582893f97c06a7929c7c14657b4265a0ff06bcee8cdaadc43a889e720249cdc |
| Super Heavy booster explodes | 83¢ | +19pp | $690 | polymarket | /markets/spacex-starship-flight-test-12-super-heavy-booster-polymarket-0x400b0455f9dab6116139d3f849a4e117894314ddbaefa17fbdf586b4b7177ccb |
| May 22 | 79¢ | +10pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/spacex-starship-flight-test-12-may-22-polymarket-0xc48adad41230bb3e1cc1e6ac50560225cea311cb75c33a900f0133d15a9ba4ba |
| Successful splash down | 59¢ | +7pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/spacex-starship-flight-test-12-successful-splash-d-polymarket-0xebe4cbe5f3890e3ea9a489f5f8a6440aa556fdbc952c0f2edf7bbadbc8877fcc |
| May 15 | 4¢ | +2pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/spacex-starship-flight-test-12-may-15-polymarket-0x322e86092d4f835a6259c68e15f09bcc1fc5d721917fff4e9804218cb6a83629 |
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster | 3¢ | −7pp | $581 | polymarket | /markets/spacex-starship-flight-test-12-chopsticks-catch-su-polymarket-0x70256bb37df15accfd8a576e9838e277022790b82ba576a3b8762ff4b9839ade |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | June 30 | May 31 | Super Heavy booster explodes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 53 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 82 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 73 | 78 | 62 |
| 2026-05-07 | 92 | 76 | 81 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 83 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Super Heavy booster explodes +19pp 62→81¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · June 30 +19pp 73→92¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · May 22 +10pp 55→65¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · May 31 −8pp 86→78¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Successful splash down +7pp 51→58¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 82% probability indicates market participants assess a high likelihood that SpaceX will attempt Flight Test 12 of Starship by May 31, 2026. Current market pricing reflects confidence in near-term launch readiness, though uncertainty remains about exact timing and mission success. The May 31 contract significantly outprices later date alternatives (May 22 at 55%, June 30 at 52%), suggesting traders expect launch attempts within the next four weeks rather than delays extending into June. Market participants are also pricing a 28% chance the mission includes a successful Chopsticks catch of the Super Heavy booster, a more complex objective than flight itself. The main factor supporting the high probability is SpaceX's demonstrated cadence of Starship test flights; factors that could lower it include regulatory delays, technical issues discovered during pre-flight checks, or unfavorable launch window conditions. Resolution depends on whether SpaceX announces and executes a Flight Test 12 launch attempt before May 31.

### Key factors

- SpaceX completed Flight Test 11 in April 2024; the cadence and timeline from that mission to a May 2026 attempt would determine if 82% is consistent with historical launch intervals
- FAA licensing and range availability constraints have delayed previous Starship tests; any new regulatory holds or range conflicts before May 31 would directly contradict the high probability
- May 31 contract (82¢) commands a 27-percentage-point premium over May 22 (55¢), indicating traders expect either a delay past mid-May or confidence the window extends to late May
- Chopsticks booster catch pricing at only 28¢ while flight attempt prices at 82¢ suggests marginal market confidence in that specific objective, even if the launch occurs
- Weather, propellant loading issues, or discovered hardware anomalies during final countdown integration typically resolve within days; no public schedule has been announced as of May 6, 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spacex-starship-flight-test-12
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=spacex-starship-flight-test-12
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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