# How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026

> Above 10 leads at 96%, runner-up 96% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spacexcount
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.553Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 10 at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 120 at 96%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $18K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10 | 96¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26jun-10 |
| Above 120 | 96¢ | −1pp | $352 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-120 |
| Above 11 | 91¢ | ±0 | $728 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26jun-11 |
| Above 140 | 80¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-140 |
| Above 12 | 80¢ | +4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26jun-12 |
| Above 13 | 63¢ | +9pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26jun-13 |
| Above 160 | 32¢ | −3pp | $378 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-160 |
| Above 170 | 31¢ | −1pp | $234 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-170 |
| Above 180 | 25¢ | ±0 | $953 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-180 |
| Above 14 | 20¢ | +4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26jun-14 |
| Above 190 | 8¢ | −1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-190 |
| Above 200 | 7¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-2-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-200 |
| Above 210 | 5¢ | ±0 | $175 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-2-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-210 |
| Above 15 | 4¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26jun-15 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 10 | Above 120 | Above 11 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | — | 93 | — |
| 2026-05-25 | — | 93 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | — | 95 | — |
| 2026-06-02 | 83 | 97 | 72 |
| 2026-06-08 | 96 | 96 | 91 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · Above 13 +16pp 33→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Above 12 +16pp 46→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Above 13 +15pp 49→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Above 12 +15pp 62→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Above 13 +14pp 19→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market prices a 94% probability that SpaceX will complete more than 12 launches in 2026, with much lower probabilities assigned to 13+ or 14+ launches. This assessment reflects expectations about SpaceX's operational capacity, launch cadence, and mission manifest for the year. Key drivers include SpaceX's current launch infrastructure, regulatory approval timelines, and customer demand. The probability could shift based on actual launch performance through the year—successful execution would reinforce confidence, while delays or technical issues would lower expectations. Uncertainty will gradually resolve as 2026 progresses and launch attempts occur, with the final outcome determined by SpaceX's actual launch count on December 31, 2026.

### Key factors

- SpaceX's 2025 launch cadence and achieved flight rate provides a baseline for 2026 forecasting
- Regulatory throughput from the FAA, particularly licensing decisions for Starship, directly enables or constrains launch capacity
- Customer manifest backlog and commercial demand are needed to fill available launch windows
- Technical setbacks or grounding events would materially lower the probability of meeting threshold targets
- The probability gap between 12+ (94%), 13+ (50%), and 14+ (13%) suggests consensus expectations cluster around 13 launches but carry substantial variance

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spacexcount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=spacexcount
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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