# Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Aug 21, 2026

> Before Oct 16, 2026 leads at 96%, runner-up 94% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spacexstarship-14
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:51.188Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-16

## Headline

- Leader: Before Oct 16, 2026 at 96%
- Runner-up: Before Oct 1, 2026 at 94%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 16, 2026 | 96¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spacex-launch-another-starship-before-oct-16-kalshi-kxspacexstarship-14-26oct16 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 94¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spacex-launch-another-starship-before-oct-1-2-kalshi-kxspacexstarship-14-26oct01 |
| Before Sep 18, 2026 | 82¢ | +1pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/will-spacex-launch-another-starship-before-sep-18-kalshi-kxspacexstarship-14-26sep18 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 28¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-spacex-launch-another-starship-before-sep-1-2-kalshi-kxspacexstarship-14-26sep01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Oct 16, 2026 | Before Oct 1, 2026 | Before Sep 18, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 81 | 81 | 50 |
| 2026-07-31 | 85 | 81 | 70 |
| 2026-08-01 | 92 | 85 | 76 |
| 2026-08-02 | 94 | 89 | 78 |
| 2026-08-08 | — | 95 | 82 |
| 2026-08-09 | — | — | 83 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-04 · Before Sep 1, 2026 −7pp 38→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Before Oct 1, 2026 +6pp 89→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Before Sep 1, 2026 −4pp 33→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-02 · Before Oct 1, 2026 +4pp 85→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Before Sep 1, 2026 −3pp 29→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 17% probability that SpaceX will launch another Starship by August 21, 2026—just three weeks away. The low probability reflects the tight timeline and SpaceX's historical launch cadence. Key drivers include the current state of launch infrastructure, any ongoing technical issues from recent tests, regulatory approvals, and available launch windows. The probability increases substantially to 42% for September 1st and 74% for September 18th, suggesting markets expect meaningful delays beyond the immediate August window. The main catalyst is whether SpaceX completes preflight checks and receives clearance for a launch attempt in the next 21 days. If no launch occurs by late August, the focus shifts to whether September brings operational readiness or points to more substantial delays pushing timelines into October.

### Key factors

- SpaceX's Starship launch cadence in 2026 and current vehicle readiness status
- Outstanding technical or regulatory approvals required for the next scheduled launch attempt
- Historical turnaround time between Starship tests and whether recent launches identified issues requiring extended repair
- Available launch windows at Starbase and any weather or facility constraints in late August
- Market's probabilistic gap between Aug 21 (17%) and Oct 16 (87%) reflects expected 6-week launch window rather than imminent readiness

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spacexstarship-14
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=spacexstarship-14
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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