# Spain vs. Cabo Verde

> Spain leads at 86%, runner-up 8% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spain-vs-cabo-verde
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:40.454Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-15

## Headline

- Leader: Spain at 86%
- Runner-up: Draw (Spain vs. Cabo Verde) at 8%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $240

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 86¢ | −1pp | $178 | polymarket | /markets/spain-vs-cabo-verde-spain-polymarket-0xa5501b4dc0c99c382b1c2871ad9141c7f58509a0f962f70a38bb6566ec570049 |
| Draw (Spain vs. Cabo Verde) | 8¢ | +1pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/spain-vs-cabo-verde-draw-spain-vs-cabo-verde-polymarket-0xc34b198e91f197098da3f782c066328e199a6342e6798753de2bfa9ae568ae93 |
| Cabo Verde | 7¢ | +1pp | $31 | polymarket | /markets/spain-vs-cabo-verde-cabo-verde-polymarket-0xf29e8ca118bc47e9d5d162191382c8700213730e6f5959d69b006c64e16685a8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Spain | Draw (Spain vs. Cabo Verde) | Cabo Verde |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 91 | 6 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 91 | 7 | 6 |
| 2026-05-07 | 89 | 7 | 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | 88 | 8 | 5 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Spain −3pp 92→89¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Markets are pricing Spain as a heavy favorite to defeat Cabo Verde with 90% implied probability, with some contracts suggesting slightly lower odds around 87%. This reflects Spain's stronger playing history, ranking advantage, and general footballing capacity compared to Cabo Verde. The primary drivers of this probability are team strength differentials and recent form. The main factor that could shift this would be injury status of key Spain players or unexpected Cabo Verde tactical adjustments, though the baseline expectation remains a Spain win. The match itself—the scheduled competition date—serves as the key catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty and determine whether the market-implied probability aligns with the actual outcome.

### Key factors

- Spain is ranked significantly higher in FIFA rankings and has a superior historical record against Cabo Verde
- Polymarket and Kalshi show slight disagreement (90¢ vs. 87¢), suggesting some residual uncertainty despite the heavy favorite pricing
- Implied probability of a Cabo Verde win ranges from 3–10% depending on the contract, indicating low but non-negligible tail risk
- 24-hour trading volume is highest on the Spain-favored Polymarket contract ($96), suggesting this is the most actively priced version
- Related markets show Spain as favored in other matchups (87¢ vs. Saudi Arabia), reinforcing broader market confidence in Spanish performance

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spain-vs-cabo-verde
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=spain-vs-cabo-verde

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.