# When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13

> Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 94%, runner-up 86% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 36 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spcxlaunch-crew13
Updated: 2026-07-24T01:20:51.898Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 94%
- Runner-up: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 86%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 94¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spacex-launch-dragon-crew-13-before-jan-kalshi-kxspcxlaunch-crew13-27jan01 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 86¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spacex-launch-dragon-crew-13-before-dec-kalshi-kxspcxlaunch-crew13-26dec01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 81¢ | +37pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spacex-launch-dragon-crew-13-before-nov-kalshi-kxspcxlaunch-crew13-26nov01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 78¢ | +30pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spacex-launch-dragon-crew-13-before-oct-kalshi-kxspcxlaunch-crew13-26oct01 |
| Before Sep 27, 2026 | 70¢ | +35pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spacex-launch-dragon-crew-13-before-sep-kalshi-kxspcxlaunch-crew13-26sep27 |
| Before Sep 20, 2026 | 56¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spacex-launch-dragon-crew-13-before-sep-kalshi-kxspcxlaunch-crew13-26sep20 |
| Before Sep 13, 2026 | 31¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spacex-launch-dragon-crew-13-before-sep-kalshi-kxspcxlaunch-crew13-26sep13 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Dec 1, 2026 | Before Nov 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 41 | 53 | 44 |
| 2026-07-05 | 85 | 82 | 81 |
| 2026-07-06 | 92 | — | — |
| 2026-07-21 | — | 86 | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-21 · Before Dec 1, 2026 +4pp 82→86¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This measures the probability that SpaceX will launch the Dragon Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station before January 1, 2027. The 87% probability reflects strong market confidence in a launch within the next six months, though the contract structure shows meaningful uncertainty about timing within that window. Market prices drop sharply for September launches (11–33¢) but remain elevated for October through December (79–85¢), suggesting traders expect a delay into the final months of 2026. The outcome depends on SpaceX's current launch cadence, vehicle readiness, and any technical or weather-related postponements. The primary catalyst will be SpaceX's official announcement of the Dragon Crew-13 launch date and any schedule adjustments in the coming weeks. A crewed Dragon launch typically requires 2–4 months of preparation after the previous mission completes.

### Key factors

- SpaceX's historical Dragon crewed mission launch success rate and typical turnaround time between successive crew missions
- Current status and completion date of Dragon Crew-12 mission, which must conclude before Crew-13 can launch
- Number of scheduled launch windows SpaceX has reserved for Crew-13 in Q3 and Q4 2026 according to NASA flight schedules
- Any publicly announced technical issues, manufacturing delays, or schedule revisions from SpaceX or NASA in recent months
- Historical frequency of launch postponements for crewed missions due to weather, technical inspection findings, or payload readiness

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spcxlaunch-crew13
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=spcxlaunch-crew13
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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