# When will SpaceX launch Dragon CRS-35

> Before Nov 1, 2026 leads at 77%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 58 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spcxlaunch-crs35
Updated: 2026-08-24T04:20:54.661Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Nov 1, 2026 at 77%
- Runner-up: Before Oct 1, 2026 at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 77¢ | ±0 | $13 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spacex-launch-dragon-crs-35-before-nov-1-kalshi-kxspcxlaunch-crs35-26nov01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 3¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spacex-launch-dragon-crs-35-before-oct-1-kalshi-kxspcxlaunch-crs35-26oct01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Nov 1, 2026 | Before Oct 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 82 | 53 |
| 2026-08-09 | 75 | — |
| 2026-08-11 | 76 | 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | 76 | 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | 77 | 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | 77 | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-20 · Before Nov 1, 2026 −3pp 78→75¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 89% probability reflects market consensus that SpaceX will launch the Dragon CRS-35 resupply mission to the International Space Station before November 1, 2026. The high confidence is supported by SpaceX's demonstrated track record with Dragon cargo missions and typical launch cadences, though the lower prices for earlier windows (13–42¢ through August) suggest lingering uncertainty about near-term scheduling. Launch timing depends on ISS operational needs, payload readiness, and weather constraints. The primary catalyst will be SpaceX's official announcement of the launch date and any delays or technical issues that emerge during pre-flight preparation. A launch confirmation in late July or early August would likely shift near-term probabilities upward significantly.

### Key factors

- SpaceX has completed 34 Dragon CRS missions with a high success rate, establishing baseline reliability for orbital resupply operations
- The November 1 deadline provides approximately four months from today, a window consistent with typical cargo mission scheduling intervals
- Earlier August windows trade at substantially lower prices (13–42¢), indicating the market expects delays beyond early summer or reflects real constraints not yet publicly disclosed
- ISS resupply missions are coordinated with station operations, crew rotations, and cargo priorities—external scheduling pressures beyond SpaceX's control
- Official launch date announcement from SpaceX or NASA would be the most direct resolution of current timing uncertainty

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spcxlaunch-crs35
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=spcxlaunch-crs35
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.