# Speaker of the House after the midterms

> Hakeem Jeffries leads at 75%, runner-up 12% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/speaker-of-house-after-midterms
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.070Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Leader: Hakeem Jeffries at 75%
- Runner-up: Pete Aguilar at 12%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Jeffries | 75¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/speaker-of-the-house-after-the-midterms-hakeem-jef-polymarket-0x489e65bd324cb81905753618193a9a94de063b2c3f41b8851dd9150735db9e91 |
| Pete Aguilar | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/speaker-of-the-house-after-the-midterms-pete-aguil-polymarket-0x27fbd69a4b6bffa23d4e60941f8a41ac3844de3937e6b17d9aca50cd4bfccb60 |
| Mike Johnson | 11¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/speaker-of-the-house-after-the-midterms-mike-johns-polymarket-0xc20c64f827ee7ac4ee93de4767987a98301f942b3e0b353d79188577757817ad |
| Jim Jordan | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/speaker-of-the-house-after-the-midterms-jim-jordan-polymarket-0x0eb44129ef505654afb4c4306ddfed9a12201419ac20e9ccf3688d413bc4378c |
| Katherine Clark | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/speaker-of-the-house-after-the-midterms-katherine-polymarket-0x040ca7d7870648356cdd145de9a6819326dc6d8c37ead4dd0a096029724617b3 |
| Steve Scalise | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/speaker-of-the-house-after-the-midterms-steve-scal-polymarket-0xa8c1b9c6b0c81352ff0d2978ed25705961dff42be6feb1d2d8773b24b0152190 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Hakeem Jeffries | Pete Aguilar | Mike Johnson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 85 | 13 | 13 |
| 2026-05-02 | 84 | 11 | 11 |
| 2026-05-08 | 84 | 22 | 22 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Pete Aguilar +9pp 11→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Mike Johnson +7pp 15→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Hakeem Jeffries −6pp 87→81¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Mike Johnson +4pp 11→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Hakeem Jeffries +4pp 80→84¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 87% probability reflects market confidence that a single party will control the Speaker position after November 2026, with the leading outcome heavily favored over alternatives. This implies the market expects a decisive midterm result rather than a closely divided chamber. The current House composition and historical patterns of midterm swings are primary drivers—if Democrats maintain or gain seats, the incumbent Speaker pathway strengthens; if Republicans expand their majority, alternative outcomes become more likely. The midterm elections themselves on November 3, 2026, will directly determine the new House composition and thus resolve which party controls the Speaker office.

### Key factors

- Current House seat distribution and projected seat changes based on district-level polling and historical midterm trends
- Whether either party achieves a working majority (218+ seats) or faces divided government dynamics that constrain Speaker selection
- Turnout patterns and swing district performance in competitive districts, which typically determine midterm outcomes
- Potential Speaker contests within the winning party if internal factions dispute the nomination
- Economic conditions and approval ratings between now and November 2026, which historically correlate with midterm vote share

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/speaker-of-house-after-midterms
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=speaker-of-house-after-midterms
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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